• Palmer, Alaska, United States (99645)
  • WxZone: AKZ111ICAO: PAAQLat: 61.60NLon: 149.11W
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540 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE EVOLUTION OF FEATURES ACROSS THE
ALASKAN DOMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL MODELS HAVE A
STRENGTHENING COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THESE LOWS
WILL COMBINE ENERGY INTO ONE LARGER COMPLEX LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION WHICH WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA REGION. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH
MOVING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM MODEL ARE ON THE SLOW END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AS
WELL AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THUS THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WAS
USED EXCLUSIVELY IN PREPARATION OF THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
BEYOND DAY 3...MODEL AGREEMENT BECOMES VERY POOR...AND HPC GUIDANCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF THE MAINLAND ALASKA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING
STILL RESIDING OVER THE BERING SEA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES KEEPS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA A MULTITUDE OF
WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT BIG
PLAYER FOR THE REGION IS A DEEP LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. CURRENTLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW IS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE MAINLAND
THE INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING FEW CLOUDS AND WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPS.
THE GULF COAST AREAS ARE SEEING MUCH OF THE SAME WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS APPROACH. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE GULF COAST AREAS...HOWEVER THE INLAND REGIONS
WILL BE PRIMARILY PROTECTED FROM THE PRECIP. STRONG WINDS WITH THIS
LOW WILL PRODUCE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF COAST. THE
LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT KODIAK WHICH IS SEEING RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS ALREADY AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THERE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL AREAS IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE
EAST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING IS PRODUCING WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON THE PENINSULA THE INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS FROM EAST TO WEST AND IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL TURN TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE PENINSULA.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE AREA IS THE
INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS TIMING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
PRIBILOFS AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE PRIBILOFS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT GIVING THEM BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.
AS WEAK LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE
STORY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS REMAINED STATIONARY OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY EVENING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
PRIMARILY ZONAL. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...181 185 195
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171  
                        172 175 176 185 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK/AMD FEB 12
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