Discussions

934 AM MST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 
AREA WIDE TODAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL 
WARM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COOLER 
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE 
U.S./MEX BORDER. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. I MADE A 
MINOR REVISION TO THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO MENTION A 
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE THE 
ONLY AREA WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN WOULD BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN THEN...IT\S ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE. BOTTOM 
LINE...NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT PRECIP-WISE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. I DON\T THINK SKIES WILL CLEAR ALTOGETHER BEFORE THE DAY IS 
DONE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. 

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE 
ABLE TO TAKE A SHOT AT THE LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. NO OTHER 
CHANGES MADE. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE U.S. AS A SECONDARY 
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS 
HAVE THIS WAVE BRUSHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 
QUICKLY EXITING BY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT 
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...SO KEPT LIGHT SHOWER 
CHANCES GOING THERE.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST WEAKLY AMPLIFYING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN FLATTENING BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEK/S
END WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AN STRENGTHENING LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S....TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLING TREND SUNDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES ABOUT OVERALL STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THESE
FEATURES SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST MORE TOWARD CLIMO AND 
CONTINUED THE ALREADY ADVERTISED COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL 
ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL AND KBLH...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY 
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN 
AZ. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE CA THIS 
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE 
PHOENIX METRO AREA INTO THIS EVENING. BASES BELOW 10K FEET ARE NOT 
ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN 
CHANCES...MAINLY TO NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. A STRONGER STORM 
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS FOR MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER 
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE...MAINLY 
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH

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