Discussions

918 AM PST TUE FEB 7 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

WET AND COOL DAY TODAY WITH PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM IS STRETCHING APART ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND WEAKENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WEST SIDE WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ALONG THE
WEST SIDE INCLUDING THE COASTAL RANGE AND DELTA AND AROUND A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY SO FAR. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH FOR THE COASTAL RANGE
AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE SIERRA. INCREASED THE QPF IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND
4500 TO 6000 FEET. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ISOLATED GUSTS 40 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGE
TODAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AGAIN TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY BRING MORE FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHES BY THE FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY FOR
SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES. HSO

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

HAVE KEPT SATURDAY DRY SINCE SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY
RIDGING DOMINATES NRN CA UNDER THE OVERALL RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW.
A WAVE IN GFS MOVES INLAND OVER NRN CA ON SUNDAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY NORTHWARD OF I-80, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER WITHIN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. HAVE KEPT PROBABILITY OF PRECIP PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS FLAT RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A THREAT
OF WEAK RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. IN ANY CASE, NO REAL THREAT EXISTS OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR NRN CA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.   JCLAPP

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY BRINGING
AREAS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SIERRA
WITH SNOW LEVELS THERE AROUND 5500 FEET. IFR- MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE HIGHER COASTAL AND SIERRA MTNS.
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SOUTHERLY G25KTS IN THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY POSSIBLE TODAY. EK

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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