Discussions

345 AM MST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE 
THE CLOUD COVER AS PERSISTENT WAVE CLOUD WILL GIVE WAY TO A GENERAL 
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TODAY.  WEAK LOW 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WHILE 
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.  TEMPERATURE 
ADVECTION IS FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT MUCH QG FORCING...BUT MOUNTAINTOP 
LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE FOR A WHILE LATER TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING 
EARLY THURSDAY.  WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND ENOUGH WIND...EXPECT 
OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS THESE FEATURES MOVE 
THROUGH. LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SNOW MODEL GAVE UP TO 4 INCHES IN SPOTS 
FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

LOWERED HIGHS ON THE PLAINS TODAY A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER 
AND HELD ON TO LOWS WHICH ARE GENERALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR 
THE SAME REASON.

FINALLY...PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIMITED TO THE CREST OF THE PALMER DIVIDE 
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER THIS MORNING...NOT TOO THICK AS THERE 
IS SOME WIND AND SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA 
THURSDAY.  FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS 
PROGGED BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.  ON FRIDAY AND 
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY DECREASES 
IN SPEED AS AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON 
SATURDAY.  THERE IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR 
THE CWA ON THURSDAY...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS 
PROGGED TO BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON THURSDAY 
...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND EASTERLY 
UPSLOPE IS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  FOR MOISTURE...IT 
DECREASES RAPIDLY OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE IS TAD 
PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE 
IN THE MID LEVELS THURSDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY.  
FRIDAY IS DRY OVER THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE OVER 
THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE IS 
LIMITED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE 
PLAINS HAVE PRETTY DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  
THERE IS A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON QPF FIELDS 
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY... 
WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN MIND.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY'S 
HIGHS LOOK CLOSE TO TODAY'S READINGS.  FRIDAY'S ARE PRETTY CLOSE 
TOO.  THE NORTHEAST CORNER...HOWEVER...IS ABOUT 5 C COLDER THAN 
THURSDAY.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS 
BRING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH ON SUNDAY.  MORE RIDGING FOR MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER UPPER 
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY.  THE LOOK OF THE PATTERN WE'VE HAD 
OVER US THE LAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD... 
DOES NOT LOOK VERY COMMON.  IT'S RATHER DIFFICULT TO BUY...BECAUSE 
IT JUST DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THAT/THIS VERY OFTEN.  THESE 00Z MODELS 
SHOW THE TROUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO HAVE LESS MOISTURE THAN 
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.  THE MOISTURE FOR THE TUESDAY TROUGH IS NOT 
VERY SIGNIFICANT EITHER.  WE'LL HAVE TO SEE.  TEMPERATURES DON'T 
APPEAR TO GET ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ANY OF THE FOUR DAYS.  ALSO OF 
NOTE...THE SURGE THAT THE MODELS SHOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY THAT JUST GETS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY MAKE 
INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS ANYWAY.  AGAIN..WE'LL HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME 
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...KDEN/KAPA SHOULD GO TO 
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BUT KBJC MAY REMAIN NW DUE TO A WEAK DENVER 
CYCLONE.  SPEEDS SHOULD BE UNDER 8 KNOTS IN ANY EVENT.
 
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

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