Weather Advisories

• Hazardous Weather Outlook

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Issued 421 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
Expires 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

CORRECTED NHC PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-260900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
421 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 /321 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. BY TONIGHT...
THERE IS A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW...POSSIBLY TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL BY THAT TIME...WILL BE POSITIONED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
SUNDAY. AFTER TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARD FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. OUR LATEST
FORECAST SHOWS A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVING WEST ALONG THE NORTH
FLORIDA BORDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW WILL MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY BACK TO FLORIDA....THE MAIN MESSAGE TO TAKE AWAY AT
THIS TIME IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE CONSIDERING THE SHARP TURN THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AND THE FACT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
YET TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP. IF THE SOLUTION THAT IS BEING USED FOR
THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES...THERE WOULD BE MINIMAL WIND HAZARD
TO THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS THE PRIMARY IMPACT. PLEASE
MONITOR THIS OUTLOOK AND FUTURE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THIS
SITUATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.