Discussions

603 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS MOVES INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A 115-130 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY. THE MEAN SKY COVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL BY LATE MORNING WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
SETTLING INTO THE -1 TO +3C RANGE. CORRESPONDING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S AS NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST AND FLOW OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE APEX OF THE TROUGH SETTING UP JUST OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS CORRESPONDING MASS FIELDS WHILE
THE ECMWF/GFS DEPICT A MUCH LESS DEFINED TROUGH AXIS. THE NAM LOOKS
SUSPECT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED AN A SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR STRONG COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. PLAN
TO DISCOUNT THE NAM FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...BUT STILL SHOW WEAK
COASTAL THROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ATOP THE COASTAL TROUGH
AND THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE...CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO HIGH TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY AS A RESULT. LOWS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
INLAND...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 40S AT THE
BEACHES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL GEORGIA ZONES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT 
TERM PERIODS...RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WITH THE WAVE THEN TRACKING 
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS 
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A COLD 
WINTER AIRMASS BACK TO THE LOW COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE LOW/LOW CHANCE 
POPS MOST LOCALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE INCREASE IN 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME DECENT 
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE A FEW 
RAIN DROPS OUT OF THE SKY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR RAIN 
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY 
EVENING AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT ANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL LACK ANY MOISTURE RETURN AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SO RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST
FREE FROM RAIN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON 
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 
NEAR NORMAL...TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. QUITE A CHANGE 
IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET 
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCALES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL 
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN MOST AREAS.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON LAKE
MOULTRIE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE MODEL DISCONTINUITY...OPERATIONAL 
SOLUTIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN DISPLAYING POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE 
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER 
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD AND INTO 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. SOLUTIONS THEN DEVIATE ON THE 
POSITIONING AND PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC DETAILS TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GIVEN 
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WILL 
TRY TO CAPITALIZE ON PERIODS WHERE THE MODELS ARE MORE CLOSELY 
ALIGNED WHILE TRYING TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FORECAST ERROR WHERE THE 
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE SUNDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINANT 
WEATHER FEATURE. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING AND 
PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC DETAILS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...THEY DO AGREE 
ON BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
INTO THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THEN DEVIATE MORE 
NOTICEABLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE RAIN 
FREE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS 
GENERALLY SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING OUT OF THE REGION AND 
HOLDING OFF ON A RETURN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS QUITE 
UNCERTAIN...SO CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL START 
OUT WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN 
THE 20S MOST LOCALES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN 
THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THE 
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS 
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD AFFECT THE 
TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE LIFTS BY WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. 
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS 
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICKUP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...BUT IT WOULD BE CLOSE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.

TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE 
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON 
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY. 

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT 
WITH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE 
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION 
REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS 
LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 
SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AT THIS 
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS 
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY NOON ON SUNDAY...WITH SEAS MOST 
LIKELY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER 
GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

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