Discussions

237 PM EST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAIN UNDER FAIRLY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STATIC. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND CONFINED
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS POINT TO A CHANCE FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION. MODEL AND HPC QPF NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW A TENTH
OF AN INCH AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY WARM FOR FEBRUARY
SO ANY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS SO LITTLE TO NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME...SEE BELOW FOR PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION. 

20

.PREV DISCUSSION... 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN...WITH THE SLIGHTEST
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN NORTH GEORGIA
SUGGEST AIR COLD ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THE CHANCE OF FLAKES
OR FLURRIES SURVIVING TO THE GROUND IS QUESTIONABLE. IF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING IS EFFECTIVE...IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL AND A FEW FLURRIES SURVIVE TO THE GROUND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL IN THE
MORNING SINCE MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING SO GREATLY...WITH THE 00Z NAM
HAVING THE FRONT BACK IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 12Z SATURDAY.

A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY IS A DRIER...COOLER DAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH THE
00Z ECMWF HAS MOVING INTO OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION NEARING THE AL-GA BORDER AROUND
12Z.

10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. 

&&

AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INITIALLY...DIMINISHING TO 5-8KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          32  56  32  62 /   0   0   5  10 
ATLANTA         33  55  36  60 /   0   0   5  10 
BLAIRSVILLE     28  52  28  56 /   0   0   5  20 
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  29  57 /   0   0   5  10 
COLUMBUS        36  59  36  63 /   0   0   5   5 
GAINESVILLE     33  54  35  58 /   0   0   5  10 
MACON           34  59  34  65 /   0   0   5   5 
ROME            29  53  29  57 /   0   0   5  20 
PEACHTREE CITY  29  56  30  61 /   0   0   5  10 
VIDALIA         39  62  39  68 /   0   0   5  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20

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