Discussions

301 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. FAST MOVING AND FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE TIGHT...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE FOR
THIS TIME FRAME IS THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AT THIS SAME TIME WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL AND HPC QPF REMAIN VERY LOW WITH BOTH THESE FEATURES.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT REALIZED
MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS
PASSED...AND WITH VERY LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 

20/25

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODEL TRENDS SO I
HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY...CONTINUED AGREEMENT FROM 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...EVEN THE 
00Z NAM HAS JOINED THE FRAY...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 
06Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMING OPENS THE WINDOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
WINTRY WAKE-UP IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING. 
00Z SATURDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE UP IN 
NORTH GEORGIA THAT WOULD BE RIPE FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. BY 
06Z...MODEL SOUNDINGS CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING 
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE THAT HELPS CREATE A BELOW-FREEZING COLUMN WHICH 
IS NECESSARY FOR SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH THE MOIST BELOW 
FREEZING COLUMN THROUGH 12Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING 
AROUND FREEZING...SNOW MAY STICK LIGHTLY TO GRASSY SURFACES IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH 
SHOW A WARMER COLUMN WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING 
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. LARGE 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD FALL BELOW THE 25 PERCENT RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY THRESHOLD CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY COINCIDE WITH COLD AIR...LEADING TO 
SNOW IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND COLD RAIN WELL INTO METRO 
ATLANTA. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENT IS LOW...IT BEARS WATCHING 
FOR TRENDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING 
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT BEING THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY WHILE THE 00Z GFS DELAYS 
IT UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS FAR 
OUT...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. INCLUDED HIGHER POPS BUT HELD OFF ON 
THUNDER FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND INSTABILITY IS 
TOO LOW TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST HEALTHY 
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR FOR THIS EVENT.

10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES...AS
MAY WIND SPEEDS. 

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 5KT MIDDAY FRIDAY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TO BETWEEN
10-15KFT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          32  57  36  48 /   0  10  20   5 
ATLANTA         35  57  38  46 /   0  10  20   5 
BLAIRSVILLE     28  52  33  39 /   0  20  40  20 
CARTERSVILLE    29  56  34  44 /   0  20  30   5 
COLUMBUS        36  63  41  51 /   0  10  20   5 
GAINESVILLE     34  54  37  47 /   0  10  30  10 
MACON           32  62  40  56 /   0  10  20   5 
ROME            29  57  34  43 /   0  30  30   5 
PEACHTREE CITY  29  57  35  47 /   0  10  20   5 
VIDALIA         40  66  44  60 /   0  20  30   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20

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