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358 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST TODAY AND END THE WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA. THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING THE SFC WINDS FROM EAST TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY BUT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA. POPS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHEAST.

GFS IS STILL DOWNPLAYING CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH NEAR ZERO MU CAPES
AND POSITIVE LIFTED INDICES. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND PEGS AROUND
500 J/KG OF MU CAPE TONIGHT ACROSS WEST GEORGIA AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...CORRESPONDING
LIFTED INDICES ARE NEGATIVE. ALTHOUGH THE MU CAPE VALUES MAY BE A
LITTLE OVERDONE IN THE NAM...STILL THINK THERE IS AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER SO MENTIONED IT ACROSS WEST GEORGIA TODAY AND
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR ISNT IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN BEST SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.

MODELS STILL SUGGEST AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS WITH THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CWA ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHICH ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST POPS.
GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 1.5
INCHES...NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING. IN A RECENT RAINFALL
EVENT...RIVERS IN NORTHEAST GA RECEIVED 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN
AND WERE ABLE TO HANDLE IT. SO AS FAR AS RIVER FLOODING GOES...NO
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MAV/MET TEMP GUIDANCE TODAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER MAV WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY BUT
AM CONCERNED THAT WAA COULD WARM UP TEMPS A LITTLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED. 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE DIFFERENCES AGAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED AT 
BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT AND THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM 
FORECAST IS LOW. GFS HAS PUSHED THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND LIMITS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA 
WHEREAS THE ECMWF LINGERS THE PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY. WENT WITH THIS 
GFS AS THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM AND SREF AND THE ECMWF 
IS AN OUTLIER. MAY SEE WEAK WEDGING INTO NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE HIGH...THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED. 
GFS TRACKS SFC LOW ACROSS FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES
PRECIP INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF RUN REFLECTED THIS...BUT FASTER...THIS IS NO LONGER
SHOWN IN THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. WITH INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN RUNS IN
THE ECMWF...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THE TWO MODELS AGREE ON IS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
CWA ON FRIDAY KEEPING US DRY. GFS SUGGESTS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED.
SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...WE MAY SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION... 
06Z UPDATE... 
EVEN WITH PATCHES OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. HOWEVER...EXPECT CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 09Z
WITH MOST SITES GOING TO IFR BY SUNRISE. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE HARD TO TIME. MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10KT IN WEAK WEDGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  53  65  46 /  50 100  30  10 
ATLANTA         64  57  68  46 /  40 100  20  10 
BLAIRSVILLE     56  50  60  42 /  80 100  30  10 
CARTERSVILLE    63  54  68  42 /  70 100  20  10 
COLUMBUS        71  57  72  48 /  20  70  30  10 
GAINESVILLE     60  54  65  44 /  70 100  20  10 
MACON           72  57  76  48 /  20  50  30  10 
ROME            62  54  68  41 /  80 100  20  10 
PEACHTREE CITY  66  54  70  42 /  30 100  20  10 
VIDALIA         74  57  76  52 /  20  20  30  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11

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