• Atlanta, Georgia, United States (30301)
  • WxZone: GAZ045ICAO: KPDKLat: 33.79NLon: 84.19W

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352 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE 
CAROLINAS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 
STATE SATURDAY. CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE WIND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL 
PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND 
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. OUR CUT OFF DATE FOR FROST 
ADVISORIES IS NOVEMBER 20...SO NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. THE U.S. 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE INDICATED THAT THE SEASON HAS COME TO AN END FOR 
SUMMER CROPS...AND FALL CROPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND FROST 
CONDITIONS. IT WAS FURTHER INDICATED THAT OUR OFFICE POLICY SHOULD 
NOT BE AMENDED FOR THIS ONE INSTANCE. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES CAN 
STILL BE TAKEN FOR THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...WITH 
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF. AS THE LOW MOVES 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING 
ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR WEST CENTRAL GA 
SATURDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS...AND THEN CATEGORICAL 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW GOOD SHEAR SATURDAY... 
BEST CAPE AND LI VALUES ARE OVER SOUTHEAST GA SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE 
NOT INDICATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY NEED AMENDING 
AS WE GET CLOSER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST TIERS OF OUR 
CWA.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH 
THE SHORT TERM. WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH 
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM. HAVE ERRED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE 
MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ECMWF PULLS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN GA...WITH IT POSITIONED 
OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. NAM AND GFS MORE IN LINE 
WITH KEEPING THE LOW MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...AND MOVING THE OHIO 
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS 
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HPC QPF...WITH CATEGORICAL 
POPS FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE DECREASED 
POPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS IN FOR 
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS. 
TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH 
RANGE...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ECMWF AND GFS KEEP GEORGIA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH 
THE EXTENDED...WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH. AT 
THIS POINT MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONTS TO BE MAINLY DRY...SO HAVE 
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS 
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  67  43  62  47 /   0   0  10  40  80 
ATLANTA         40  66  44  59  47 /   0   0  10  50  80 
BLAIRSVILLE     36  64  37  59  43 /   0   0  10  30  70 
CARTERSVILLE    34  66  39  61  47 /   0   0  10  50  80 
COLUMBUS        40  70  49  64  53 /   0   0  10  70  80 
GAINESVILLE     42  64  44  60  46 /   0   0  10  40  80 
MACON           38  70  49  64  53 /   0   0  10  50  80 
ROME            35  66  39  62  49 /   0   0  10  40  70 
PEACHTREE CITY  32  67  39  59  49 /   0   0  10  50  80 
VIDALIA         45  74  50  65  52 /   0   0  10  30  70 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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