Discussions

520 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT WILL GET TODAY BUT GUIDANCE 
INDICATING IT GETS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL GA. THIS WILL 
GIVE POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. GFS/NAM DIFFER 
HOW MUCH THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SIMILAR WITH 
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO 
E GA FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS CAN BE 
EXPECTED FOR W GA. GOOD SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SHORT 
WAVE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS MS 
BUT THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED IT TO DIMINISH BY THE TIME IT GETS TO 
GA.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING 
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE AND GOOD JET ALOFT. 
SBCAPE RATHER LIMITED AT 500-1000. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY 
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN A CRAP SHOOT TODAY. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE BUT A 
COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS N OF THE WARM FRONT COULD SEVERELY LIMIT 
WARMING. GENERALLY TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT THIS COULD BE 2-4 
DEGREES TOO WARM. COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS LOOKS TO ERODE AT LEAST FOR 
THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY. FAVORED THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TO THE SE AND A BLEND TO THE NW.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.        

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO TN/KY SATURDAY 
GIVING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES 
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR N. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE EXITING UPPER 
SYSTEM COULD STILL GIVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N 
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY BUT YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N. GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH BRINGING AN 
UPPER LOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED. AT THIS TIME...20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS.     

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNLESS WE SEE SOMETHING DIFFERENT...THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOW TO 
EXPIRE AT 700 AM. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TO IN THE 1/4 TO 
1 INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS (1/2 TO 1 INCH) EXPECTED OVER 
CENTRAL GA WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR.  

1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION. DUE TO THE 
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY 
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. 

&&

.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE NOT DOING TOO WELL ON CIGS FORECAST. BOTH GFS/NAM CONTINUE 
TO FORECAST IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT ARE NOT HAPPENING. THE MIXING OF THE 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEEPING KEEPS FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION IS IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE WEDGE 
REMAIN. THE WEDGE FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN ATL AND AHN AND DO NOT 
SEE THIS CHANGING MUCH UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN 
ALABAMA MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND PULLS THE WEDGE FRONT BACK INTO 
THE CAROLINAS. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE 
LIFR. WEST OF THE FRONT IT IS MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. 
WITH CONVECTION AND MIXING CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WILL HOLD 
ONTO VFR CIGS AND DROP TO 1500 TO 2500 FEET IN THE RA/TSRA. TIMINING 
WILL BRING THE WESTERN ALABAMA CONVECTION INTO WESTERN GEORGIA 
AROUND 15Z...CLEARING THE CSG/ATL AREAS AROUND 18Z...AND THE AHN/MCN 
AREAS AROUND 20Z. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS 
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DENSE FOG SHOULD FORM LATE THIS 
EVENING BRINGING IFR CIGS/VSBYS BY 06Z. THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION 
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED INTO WESTERN GEORGIA 
BY 18Z FRI AND WILL THEREFORE ADD TSRA TO ATL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z 
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE 
FORECAST ALL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  48  67  47  61 / 100  30  60  60  20 
ATLANTA         60  50  65  47  57 / 100  20  70  50  30 
BLAIRSVILLE     56  48  59  44  53 /  80  40  70  60  40 
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  62  44  58 / 100  20  80  40  30 
COLUMBUS        63  50  69  46  61 / 100  20  70  30  20 
GAINESVILLE     56  48  64  46  56 / 100  30  70  60  30 
MACON           63  48  72  48  64 / 100  20  70  50  10 
ROME            62  52  60  44  58 / 100  20  80  40  50 
PEACHTREE CITY  61  47  66  43  57 / 100  20  70  50  20 
VIDALIA         66  53  75  54  70 / 100  20  50  50   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$
BDL

515 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONT...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN...CONTINUED TO DRIFT OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WAS ESTABLISHED OVER NORTH GEORGIA. RAIN FELL ACROSS
MOST OF GEORGIA TODAY. THE AVERAGE AMOUNT WAS SLIGHTLY OVER HALF AN
INCH...THE EXCEPTION WAS AN INCH AND A HALF IN VALDOSTA. AT 5 PM THE
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PEACH STATE RANGED FROM 53 IN
GAINESVILLE...TO 73 IN COLUMBUS.

THE FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF GEORGIA...

.TONIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S NORTH AND UPPER 40S AND IN THE 50S SOUTH.
.FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SOUTH.

$$

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