Discussions

750 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.UPDATE...

WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE JUST TO RAISE POPS IN SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES WHERE LIGHT RAIN LINGERS. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT...
SO MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME TWEAKS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010/ 

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL BE THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE...OR LACK-OF-WEATHER FEATURE AS THE
CASE MAY BE...FOR THE SHORT-TERM. WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER FLOW
AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OTHERWISE THE SHORT-
TERM REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD
MIDWEEK. BIASES INDICATE THAT BOTH THE MAV AND MET HAVE BEEN TOO
COOL LATELY...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FEEL A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BIAS-ADJUSTED TEMPS AND A MAV/MET BLEND IS WARRANTED.
IN GENERAL...A FAIRLY PLEASANT COUPLE OF DAYS IN STORE FOR US.

BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM...THE WAVETRAIN ELONGATES AS EARL
BARRELS HIS WAY UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO GEORGIA AS WE WILL BE WELL INTO THE SUBSIDENCE
ZONE...UNLESS WE SEE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE TRACK WHICH IS
UNLIKELY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EARL MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST
CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING EARL TO THE EAST...THOUGH HOW
FAR EAST WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND DRIER...BUT
BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WITH HOW THEY HANDLE WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE FIONA...THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND PICKS IT UP
IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS IT ON PRETTY MUCH
A DUE WEST TRACK. 12Z ECMWF NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE 00Z RUN BUT
WITH A SIMILAR IDEA WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. SO FOR NOW THE
EXTENDED IS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY AS THE WEEK
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

TDP

AVIATION...00Z UPDATE... 
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST GEORGIA WITH A LARGE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NE GA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OUT 
OF THE E TO SE AT LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 
15KT AFTER 13Z MONDAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE 
EAST TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STATE PRECIPITATION FREE AFTER 
06Z MON. CEILINGS VFR SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT....EXCEPT SOME 
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE CSG TO MCN AFTER 08Z WHERE SOME RAIN FELL 
DURING THE EVENING. VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT LOCALLY 3 TO 5SM 
IN FOG 08Z TO 13Z.

ATL CONFIDENCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CELINGS...AND VSBYS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  89  66  92  64 /   5   5   5   5   5 
ATLANTA         70  87  70  89  68 /  10  10   5   5   5 
BLAIRSVILLE     64  84  61  86  57 /   5   5   5   5   5 
CARTERSVILLE    68  87  64  91  60 /  10  10   5   5   5 
COLUMBUS        71  88  70  90  68 /  20  10   5   5   5 
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  90  66 /   5   5   5   5   5 
MACON           69  89  68  90  65 /  10  10   5   5   5 
ROME            70  89  64  92  60 /  20  10   5   5   5 
PEACHTREE CITY  68  86  63  89  61 /  20  10   5   5   5 
VIDALIA         70  89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5   5   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

515 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS AFTERNOON...HURRICANE EARL WAS CENTERED WELL
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. FEEDER BANDS FROM EARL WERE BUFFETING
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLED OVER
GEORGIA...WITH THE RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THERE IS NOT A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.

AT 5 PM...THE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PEACH STATE RANGED FROM 88 IN
CANTON...TO 94 IN ROME. THESE TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SEASONAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF GEORGIA...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 65 TO 70 NORTH WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SOUTH...EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
.FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HOT. HIGHS 90 TO 95 NORTH WITH 92
TO 98 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...EXCEPT 85 TO 90 NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

$$

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