Discussions

349 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR SUNSHINE
TODAY. A FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST FROM GULF. MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN
INVERTED TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER WATERS. THIS
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH TODAY...WITH MAXES ABOUT
5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...THEN LOWER ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS DEPARTING LOW
DRAGS COLD FRONT THROUGH. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG HIGH PRES THAT MOVED SWD OUT OF CANADA ON SAT MOVES TO 
THE SE STATES SUN PUSHING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WE 
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AN ADVECTIVE-TYPE FREEZE SUN 
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND AREAS BUT WIND SPEEDS 
(NEAR 5-15 MPH) WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A DECIDING FACTOR ON 
HOW COLD WE EVENTUALLY GET...SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL STILL 
BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AREA 12Z SUN. COLD ADVECTION WILL 
CONT ON SUN INTO MON UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR CONDS WITH A FREEZE 
MON MORNING OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE 
AS WELL AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER ERN GA 12Z MON. HIGH PRES 
AT AFC AND RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OFF THE E COAST AS A TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TOWARD THE E COAST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES 
INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 
SUPPORT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY TUE-WED AS TEMPS MODERATE UNDER 
LLVL S-SE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. NLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY MOVES TO
A PSN TO THE CAROLINAS. ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS AOB 15 KFT TO CONT
TODAY WITH SOME HINTS THAT WE MAY SEE SCT STRATO CU AFT 00Z 
AT COASTAL TAFS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM LLLV TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CRG AND SSI 
AND THUS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A LOW THEN
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PASSAGE OF THIS LOW...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITERIA FOR EITHER A HEADLINE OR A STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  42  68  44 /   0   0  10  20 
SSI  61  49  66  49 /   0   0  20  20 
JAX  66  46  71  48 /   0   0  10  20 
SGJ  65  52  70  52 /   0   0  20  20 
GNV  69  46  73  49 /   0   0  10  20 
OCF  71  50  75  50 /   0   0  20  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/STRUBLE

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