Discussions

347 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN CONTROL WITH CLEARING 
SKIES. FAVORED A BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A MODEL BLEND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...KEPT 
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO A MODEL BLEND.

FRIDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH/MIDSOUTH NEARS GEORGIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR STEADILY
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAIN UP NORTH IN THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

10/49

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONTINUED AGREEMENT FROM 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...EVEN THE 
00Z NAM HAS JOINED THE FRAY...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 
06Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMING OPENS THE WINDOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
WINTRY WAKE-UP IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING. 
00Z SATURDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE UP IN 
NORTH GEORGIA THAT WOULD BE RIPE FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. BY 
06Z...MODEL SOUNDINGS CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING 
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE THAT HELPS CREATE A BELOW-FREEZING COLUMN WHICH 
IS NECESSARY FOR SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH THE MOIST BELOW 
FREEZING COLUMN THROUGH 12Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING 
AROUND FREEZING...SNOW MAY STICK LIGHTLY TO GRASSY SURFACES IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH 
SHOW A WARMER COLUMN WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING 
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. LARGE 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD FALL BELOW THE 25 PERCENT RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY THRESHOLD CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY COINCIDE WITH COLD AIR...LEADING TO 
SNOW IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND COLD RAIN WELL INTO METRO 
ATLANTA. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENT IS LOW...IT BEARS WATCHING 
FOR TRENDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING 
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT BEING THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY WHILE THE 00Z GFS DELAYS 
IT UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS FAR 
OUT...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. INCLUDED HIGHER POPS BUT HELD OFF ON 
THUNDER FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND INSTABILITY IS 
TOO LOW TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST HEALTHY 
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR FOR THIS EVENT.

10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012/ 

AVIATION... 
06Z UPDATE... 
BKN LAYER OF 35 HUNDRED FT CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA MAY COME CLOSE TO METRO ATL TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...AND MAY SEE FEW/SCT035 AT RYY,FTY AND ATL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 10Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JUST VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KT RANGE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY SEE WINDS SWING AROUND MORE NE-E LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO NORTHWEST BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  34  59  37 /   0   0  10  20 
ATLANTA         55  37  57  38 /   0   0  10  20 
BLAIRSVILLE     52  30  51  34 /   0   0  20  30 
CARTERSVILLE    53  29  56  35 /   0   0  10  20 
COLUMBUS        60  37  63  39 /   0   0   5  20 
GAINESVILLE     52  36  55  36 /   0   0  10  20 
MACON           59  33  61  38 /   0   0   5  20 
ROME            55  31  56  35 /   0   0  20  30 
PEACHTREE CITY  56  31  59  35 /   0   0  10  20 
VIDALIA         63  40  67  42 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/49

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