Discussions

655 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012/ 

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING STARTS WITH PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ENTERING 
FROM ALABAMA INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALSO...MENTIONABLE POSSIBILITY FOR 
PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE MOVING 
THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z WITH THE 12Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 
00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF. ONLY THE ECMWF HAS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH 
GEORGIA...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO SEE 
SOME LIGHT RAIN SQUEEZED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. 
AFTER THE SYSTEM CLEARS...CLOUD COVER SHOULD START DECREASING 
ALLOWING FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH 
BIAS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAV WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM A MODEL 
BLEND. SHORT TERM MODEL TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR 
THURSDAY BRINGING A CLEARER DAY TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WENT
A SLIGHT BIT COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN...WITH THE 
SLIGHTEST POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN
NORTH GEORGIA SUGGEST AIR COLD ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THE
CHANCE OF FLAKES OR FLURRIES SURVIVING TO THE GROUND IS
QUESTIONABLE. IF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IS EFFECTIVE...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO SEE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL AND A FEW FLURRIES
SURVIVE TO THE GROUND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
LOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL IN THE MORNING SINCE MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING SO GREATLY...WITH THE 00Z NAM HAVING THE FRONT
BACK IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 12Z SATURDAY.

A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY IS A DRIER...COOLER DAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH THE
00Z ECMWF HAS MOVING INTO OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION NEARING THE AL-GA BORDER AROUND
12Z.

10

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH FUEL MOISTURES NEARING 8-10 IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA 21Z
YESTERDAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POSSIBLY TO BE AT OR BELOW 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. ONE FACTOR MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH TODAY.

10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE. LIGHT SPRINKLES AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD ALSO 
BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET.

//ATL
CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... 
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  35  56  33 /   5   0   0   5 
ATLANTA         59  36  55  37 /   5   0   0   5 
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  50  31 /  20   0   0   5 
CARTERSVILLE    58  31  53  30 /  10   0   0   5 
COLUMBUS        64  38  58  37 /   0   0   0   5 
GAINESVILLE     58  35  51  35 /  10   0   0   5 
MACON           65  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   5 
ROME            58  31  53  32 /  10   0   0   5 
PEACHTREE CITY  61  31  56  30 /   0   0   0   5 
VIDALIA         66  37  62  37 /   5   5   0   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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