• Childtime Learning Centers, Georgia, United States
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145 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE 
ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WHERE A COASTAL TROUGH IS 
IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ANY RADAR RETURNS OVER 
THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA GIVEN HOW DRY THE 
AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA. 

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER 
LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE ATLC. INVERTED TROF TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 
AND WILL TEND TO KICK OFF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH 
SOME COULD IMPACT THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY MORNING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY 
IN THE 40S INLAND WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM WITH A BETTER 
CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS FORMING NEAR THE INVERTED TROF 
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROF ALONG THE COAST 
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR 
AND POINTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW 
WILL PROVIDE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND AND SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR MAX TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS NE FL AND UPPER 60S ACROSS 
SE GA. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS AT 
TIMES.

FRI NIGHT...MAJOR MODEL SHIFT FOR POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT AS LATEST 12Z 
OPERATIONAL GFS SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WHILE 09Z SREF STILL SUPPORTS LOWER PCPN CHANCES AND RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. CONSIDERING FORECAST ONLY 
HAD 20% RAIN CHANCES IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WILL SHIFT UPWARDS INTO 
THE 30% NORTH TO 60% SOUTH RANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH ROOM TO 
INCREASE HIGHER IF MODEL CONTINUES THE CURRENT TRENDS. WILL 
ADVERTISE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH 
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE 
WHERE FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH COASTAL TROF.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL 
PULL QUICKLY AWAY AND END PCPN RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH 
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN 
NORTHWEST FLOW AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW 
WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE 
AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE 25-30 
DEGREE RANGE OVER INLAND AREAS AND 30-35 ALONG THE COAST AND ST 
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT 
GFS MOS GUIDANCE BUT STILL EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 
TEENS AND LOWER 20S AS N/NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15 MPH 
AND EXPECT TO MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NE FL.

SUNDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S 
WITH A BRISK NORTH FLOW AT 10-15G20 MPH.

SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER FREEZE EVENT IS EXPECTED AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE 
SETTLES JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. MID/UPPER 20S EXPECTED OVER 
INLAND AREAS WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE AND LIGHT FREEZE ALONG THE 
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE 
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY PREVENTING FULL 
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MONDAY...REMAINS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY EAST OF THE 
REGION WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

TUE-FRI...TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S AND 
MODELS STILL TRYING TO PICK OUT WHICH DAYS WILL BE IMPACTED FROM LOW 
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH MAIN DAYS 
APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONT SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG 
TO SEVERE AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC 
TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TROUGH 
WILL ALSO GENERATE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. A FEW 
SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
COMBINATION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FOG 
DEVELOPMENT SO LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. 

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON TAP WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER 
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE 
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS 
POINT. NORTH WINDS REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY...BUT BUILDING TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY
AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE TODAY AS 
REPORTED SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE 2-4 FT RANGE BY FRIDAY. OFFSHORE 
FLOW ON SAT/SUN WILL REVERT BACK TO LOW RISK OF RIPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES CLOSE TO 30% OVER FAR INLAND AREAS 
STILL EXPECTED BUT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES ON TAP.

SAT AFTERNOON...COLD AND DRY AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA 
WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30-35% RANGE WITH BREEZY 
NW WINDS AT 15-20 MPH A TIMES. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR 4TH PERIOD 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.

SUN AFTERNOON...COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND THIS 
WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES IN THE 15-25% RANGE. NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  43  68  45  60 /  10  10  30   0 
SSI  52  67  49  61 /  20  30  40  10 
JAX  48  73  50  66 /  10  30  40  10 
SGJ  53  70  53  67 /  20  40  50  20 
GNV  49  75  51  66 /  10  20  40  10 
OCF  52  77  53  68 /  10  30  40  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/KEEGAN
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