• New Orleans, Louisiana, United States (70112)
  • WxZone: LAZ068ICAO: KNBGLat: 29.95NLon: 90.08W
  • RSS

Discussions

806 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.UPDATE...

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A QUIET AND DRY MORNING
WITH A PW OF 0.68 INCHES. A BROKEN ALTOSTRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS IN
PLACE AT AROUND 7000 FEET WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND
ZERO DEGREES. A LARGE CAP OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 785 MB. A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 785 MB WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. A 138 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
IN PLACE AT 200 MB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...ITS BEEN A QUIET...MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH WINDS 
REMAINING AROUND 5-7KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS HAS 
HELPED KEEP TEMPS A TAD WARMER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE CWA 
REMAINING IN THE 50S. 

TODAY THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET...COOL... 
AND DRY. THE COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT HARD TO ANALYZE AS THERE REALLY 
ISNT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT BUT AT 8Z APPEARED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR 
THE BOOT-HEEL OF MO THEN BACK TO THE SW NORTH OF KTXK AND THEN DOWN 
TO NEAR KATT. THIS FRONT IS PROGRESSING NICELY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO 
THE CWA BY SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE REGION 
AND INTO THE GULF WELL BEFORE MIDDAY. THE ONLY THING YOU MAY NOTICED 
WOULD BE A SLGT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE 
SERN CONUS. IN THE MID LVLS WE WILL REMAIN IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS LATE 
THU AND MORE SO ON FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING THE HIGH CLOUDS BACK INTO 
THE REGION THU AFTN AND THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...THE HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WE ARE IN CONTINUES TO CAUSE 
SOME ISSUES WITH THE MDLS. OVERALL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MDLS IS 
NOT TOO BAD WITH THE MAIN ISSUES BEING TIMING. THAT SAID CONSISTENCY 
WITHIN THE MDLS LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE MDLS HAVE 
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE 
CANADIAN AIRMASS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS(ECMWF IS COLDER) 
AND THEY BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. 

SIGNIFICANT ENERGY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE POLAR LOW NEAR THE 
HUDSON BAY WILL HEAD SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS 
BY SAT AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND 
LIFT OUT...QUESTION IS HOW FAST. THE NRN BRANCH ENERGY BEING THE 
DOMINANT FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW THE MID LVLS TO BECOME A LITTLE 
MORE NWRLY ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
THE CANADIAN AIRMASS TO WORK TOWARDS THE GULF AND IN FACT THE MDLS 
ARE SHOWING THIS NOW WITH H925 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY SAT EVN. 
THE MDLS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS 
AIRMASS WILL GO THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WE WILL JUST STICK WITH THE 
LATEST MEX GUI. THIS IS COLDER THAN THE PREV FCST AND IN SOME 
LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL 
STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT WITH THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT WE MAY 
BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS SAT. 

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LIES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BIG 
QUESTION IS THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD BAJA LOW. AS IT MOVES INTO THE 
TX WHEN WILL IT MERGE WITH THE NRN BRANCH. IF IT IS FASTER AND 
PUSHES MORE EAST THAN NE IT COULD MERGE WITH THE NRN BRANCH AS EARLY 
SAT AFTN AND THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE PAC NW MOVES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IF THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWER IT WILL 
MERGE WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON MON 
AND COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
REGION. HAVE KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST FOR MON THROUGH WED 
BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ONE OR EVEN TWO OF THOSE DAYS WILL BE DRY JUST 
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SHOW ANY PARTICULAR DAY AT THIS TIME. /CAB/

 
AVIATION...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE LOW 
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AREA 
TERMINALS.  THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THAT WILL 
ALLOW FOR A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TO LINGER AROUND 8000 FEET...BUT THIS 
WILL NOT IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS.  32

MARINE...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST AND A LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL RESULT IN 
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW.  
OVERALL...EXPECT A RETURN TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE 
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.  SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER GULF 
WATERS.  THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO FLORIDA ON 
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND 
IMPROVING SEAS.  OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.   A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER 
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING 
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE SATURDAY 
AND SUNDAY. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  37  59  37 /   0  10  10  10 
BTR  65  42  63  43 /   0  10  10  10 
ASD  67  40  63  39 /   0  10  10  10 
MSY  65  47  62  45 /   0  10  10  10 
GPT  65  41  62  40 /   0  10  10  10 
PQL  68  39  63  35 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
CLICK FOR