Discussions

530 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

UPDATED TO ADD 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHG TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT
/MODIFIED CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASS/ WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF 130 AM...THIS FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF 
WINNIPEG WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY NOON. AHEAD OF 
THIS FRONT...SW WNDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE THE IDEAL 
CONDITIONS FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS 
THE FA...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICAL DOWN-SLOPE 
ACROSS THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE BASED ON A 
MIX DOWN FROM 90H WHICH PRODUCES MID 40S ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE 
BUFFALO RIDGE WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE IN 
THE TEENS AND 20S...LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS TYPE OF 
RAPID RISE OF TEMPS BY THE MID AFTN HRS. 

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH WND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR ZERO. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH SOME
MODIFICATION...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...TO ARND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA. SOME LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES/LT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. ANY INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE IN THIS DENDRITIC ZONE...MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OR
AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WC WI LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLDS BEHIND THIS FRONT THRU
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT TEMPS. 

ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEK COULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY TYPE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADV IN OUR
REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY HIGH END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT...AND MAINLY FOR THE S/SE HALF OF THE FA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. 

LOOKING AT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE CLIMATE MODELS AND SOME
DISCUSSION OF THE MJO /MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION/ TRENDS...HAVE 
INDICATED THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS WITH A MORE EASTWARD PROPAGATION. BASICALLY THIS WOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...DRY FOR OUR REGION AND THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSION AT 

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/MJO/MJO.SHTML. 
..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT THIS PERIOD...MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS 
EVENING/TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND 
INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF 
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND SWEEP SOUTH OVER THE REST 
OF THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED A BAND OF 
POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS WILL 
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. 
MODEL TREND WOULD INDICATE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD OR WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR 
CEILINGS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS OR SKC 
CONDITIONS ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS AFTERWARDS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.  

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 
CLOUD HEIGHTS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL.  A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.  CLOUD/CEILING HEIGHTS WILL 
LOWER AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. BY 400 AM...BECOMING SCATTERED CLOUDS 
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET AGL THEN CLEAR.  WINDS SOUTHWEST AND 
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JLT/JM 

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