Discussions

211 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHG TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT
/MODIFIED CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASS/ WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF 130 AM...THIS FRONT WAS JUST NORTH
OF WINNIPEG ONTARIO WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY
NOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SW WNDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
PROVIDE THE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER 40S IN
THE TYPICAL DOWN-SLOPE ACROSS THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN. MAX TEMPS
TODAY ARE BASED ON A MIX DOWN FROM 90H WHICH PRODUCES MID 40S
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...LACK OF SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS TYPE OF RAPID RISE OF TEMPS BY THE MID
AFTN HRS. 

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH WND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR ZERO. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH SOME
MODIFICATION...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...TO ARND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA. SOME LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES/LT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. ANY INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE IN THIS DENDRITIC ZONE...MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OR
AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WC WI LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLDS BEHIND THIS FRONT THRU
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT TEMPS. 

ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEK COULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY TYPE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADV IN OUR
REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY HIGH END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT...AND MAINLY FOR THE S/SE HALF OF THE FA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. 

LOOKING AT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE CLIMATE MODELS AND SOME
DISCUSSION OF THE MJO /MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION/ TRENDS...HAVE 
INDICATED THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS WITH A MORE EASTWARD PROPAGATION. BASICALLY THIS WOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...DRY FOR OUR REGION AND THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSION AT 

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/MJO/MJO.SHTML. 
..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING DID A GOOD
JOB OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS TOMORROW
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. NO MAJOR
CHANGES IN THINKING WITH THE 06Z TAF...ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE
REMAINING AIRPORTS NOW THAT OUR TAF WINDOW GOES THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. REALLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
EVENING AND YOU ALMOST ALWAYS GET MVFR STRATUS IN THESE
SITUATIONS. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED WITH TIME.
THE CLOUDS THAT CAME THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS AGO LAGGED THE FRONT BY
SEVERAL HOURS...SO SKIES REMAINED CLEAR FOR SOME TIME AFTER THE
WIND SHIFT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE TAF ISSUED AT 00Z. WE MIGHT
KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AFTER THEY
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAF AFTER 04Z TOMORROW. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING
SOMETIME...SO THE NEXT TAF THAT'S ISSUED CAN ADDRESS THE
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF THE 30HR
TAF PERIOD. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JLT/CLF

Found
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