Discussions

241 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH DAKOTA DROPPING
SOUTH ABOUT AS FORECAST. NOT TOO MANY SITES REPORTING SNOW BUT
A COUPLE OF SITES IN NW ONT WERE DOWN TO AROUND 2SM. THE LATEST RUC
AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT DO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN QG VERT
VEL AND FGEN TO OUR NE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH WILL INCREASE POPS
TO A CHANCE CATEGORY OVER IN WEST CENTRAL WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING DOWN WILL GO WITH A MODEL WEIGHTED DIURNAL
TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION TOO. NOT MUCH TEMP CHANGE FROM THE MORNING IN THE SE
FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. 

FEEL THAT THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND RUC LOOKING BETTER AT LEAST IN THE MN
PORTION OF THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION OS THERE...BUT WE LOOSE THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A COLD LOOKS
COLD FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH A PRES GRADIENT
CONTINUING. MOST SITES LIKELY BELOW ZERO BUT THIS REGIME IS NOT
AS COLD AS THE MID JANUARY BLAST. 

MODERATION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW BUT SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH MORE
BLOCKING AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH. PRECIP PROBS BETTER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THOUGH.
THERE HAD BEEN SOME CHANCE AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE POPS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH. THE
12Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW SOME A CHANCE BUT THIS A LITTLE
CLOSE BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM IN A SPLIT FLOW. TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
ARCTIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING... BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT AS
IT DOES SO. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A TIME. BOTH THE GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WORK INTO
THE AREA. THE NAM APPEARS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC WITH ITS LOW LEVEL
RH/CLOUD FORECASTS... KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEREBY CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE COLD AIR STRATOCU FOR A GOOD 24 HOURS AFTER IT APPEARS
LIKELY BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS... THE GFS... AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
KEPT SOME CEILINGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED... MAINLY IN LINE WITH GFS FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES.

KMSP... TAF REFLECTS GENERAL FORECAST THINKING... ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL BATCH OF CEILINGS
AROUND 2K FT AGL... THEN A CHANGE TO SCT FOR A TIME BEFORE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS CLOSER TO 3K FT AGL AFTER 12Z. BUT...
FOR NOW... KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST INCLUDED A LONGER PERIOD OF
CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT OVER TIME. SOME WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN
SUGGESTED COULD ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DEPENDING UPON HOW
DEEPLY WE MIX IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE AREA.

//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/JVM

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