Discussions

1116 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD DECK SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME NORTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR IS HELPING THE LOW CLOUDS HANG ON A BIT MORE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY WE SHOULD
SEE THE CLEARING TREND EVENTUALLY KICK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
SAGS SOUTH... BUT WILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
LOW CLOUDS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
OVERALL A QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY ISSUE IS SOME ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE THESE
CEILINGS BREAK UP DURING THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION...
AND THE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IS CUT OFF. WINDS WILL BE BACKING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... TURNING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING... THEN WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KMSP... TAF REFLECTS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WITH MINIMAL
UNCERTAINTY. LOSS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
1830Z... BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM
WHAT IS FORECAST.

//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 136 AM CST MON FEB 7 2012/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC HIGHS WILL BUILD 
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE SUCH HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA  WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A STRONG 
PUSH OF MODIFY ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER 
MIDWEST. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE DEPICTING MAINLY NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. 
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TO DIMINISH UNDER 7 MPH THIS 
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. 

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MN...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS MARCH SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN 
IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE BREAKING UP. THE LATEST MODEL 
RUN...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE OF DRY AIR PREVAILING OVER THE 
UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS 
AIRMASS IS MUCH COLDER WITH 500-510 DECAMETER HEIGHTS. OVERNIGHT 
LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING...WILL STILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS 
BELOW ZERO OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 
TEENS. 

LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FETCH WILL CONTINUE 
ONTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN 
TO FLATTEN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK 
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR MAJOR 
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

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