Discussions

1124 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHG TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT
/MODIFIED CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASS/ WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS OF 130 AM...THIS FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF 
WINNIPEG WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN BY NOON. AHEAD OF 
THIS FRONT...SW WNDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE THE IDEAL 
CONDITIONS FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS 
THE FA...WITH LOCALLY MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICAL DOWN-SLOPE 
ACROSS THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE BASED ON A 
MIX DOWN FROM 90H WHICH PRODUCES MID 40S ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE 
BUFFALO RIDGE WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE IN 
THE TEENS AND 20S...LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS TYPE OF 
RAPID RISE OF TEMPS BY THE MID AFTN HRS. 

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH WND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR ZERO. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH SOME
MODIFICATION...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...TO ARND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA. SOME LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES/LT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. ANY INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE IN THIS DENDRITIC ZONE...MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OR
AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WC WI LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLDS BEHIND THIS FRONT THRU
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT TEMPS. 

ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEK COULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY TYPE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADV IN OUR
REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY HIGH END CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT...AND MAINLY FOR THE S/SE HALF OF THE FA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. 

LOOKING AT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE CLIMATE MODELS AND SOME
DISCUSSION OF THE MJO /MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION/ TRENDS...HAVE 
INDICATED THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS WITH A MORE EASTWARD PROPAGATION. BASICALLY THIS WOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...DRY FOR OUR REGION AND THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSION AT 

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/MJO/MJO.SHTML

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
ARCTIC FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING... BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT AS
IT DOES SO. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A TIME. BOTH THE GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WORK INTO
THE AREA. THE NAM APPEARS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC WITH ITS LOW LEVEL
RH/CLOUD FORECASTS... KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEREBY CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE COLD AIR STRATOCU FOR A GOOD 24 HOURS AFTER IT APPEARS
LIKELY BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS... THE GFS... AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
KEPT SOME CEILINGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED... MAINLY IN LINE WITH GFS FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES.

KMSP... TAF REFLECTS GENERAL FORECAST THINKING... ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL BATCH OF CEILINGS
AROUND 2K FT AGL... THEN A CHANGE TO SCT FOR A TIME BEFORE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS CLOSER TO 3K FT AGL AFTER 12Z. BUT...
FOR NOW... KEPT THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST INCLUDED A LONGER PERIOD OF
CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT OVER TIME. SOME WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN
SUGGESTED COULD ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DEPENDING UPON HOW
DEEPLY WE MIX IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE AREA.

//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

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