Discussions

656 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OHIO LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. 
THE SNOW IS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY. THE QUESTION IS STILL HOW
FAR NORTH WILL THE SNOW GET. THE NAM AND LOCAL NAM IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL GFS MODEL ALSO HAS AN AREA
OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR MANSFIELD. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO HINT
AT SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE RADAR AND THE FLOW. TRYING TO KEEP
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ABOUT AN INCH MAINLY FROM US 30 SOUTH.
SOME OF THE BEST OMEGA IS ABOVE THE MOISTURE...WHICH IS
INTERESTING...THIS MAY KEEP THE SNOW FLAKE SIZE SMALL AND LIMIT
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR
CLE EAST. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. THE THREAT FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP.
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES COULD SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE...A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. A FLOW OFF THE LAKE MAY CAUSE
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE SNOW BELT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 8 OR 9C. THE SKY COVER IS A LITTLE TRICKY
BUT WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS I AM EXPECTING
THE LOW CLOUDS TO GET SCOURED OUT ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE MOISTURE DRYS OUT QUICKLY SO EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVER 20C...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH READINGS
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT 
SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL 
BRING A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED 
TROUGHING OVER LAKE ERIE. THE AIRMASS CERTAINLY REMAINS COLD ENOUGH 
FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MOISTURE. 
TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL 
PUSH OF COLD AIR. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY 
AS SKIES CLEAR AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION 
RETURN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY BRINGING 
SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS 
INTENSE TOWARDS FDY...WHILE MORE PESISTANT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT 
MFD/CAK/YNG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 4-6 HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPTECED AT BOTH MFD/CAK BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE 
EAST AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL BE TRICKY 
AT TOL/CLE/ERI TODAY AS THEY LIE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING THE DRY AIR USHER IN AND LEADING TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. 

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY
NON VFR WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY...GRADUALLY 
BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE EAST END OF 
LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 
LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF CLEVELAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES AND MAINTAINS ELEVATED
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

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