Discussions

1129 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/ 

UPDATE...
MID MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OF TWO SHORT OF WHAT
WE WERE THINKING EARLIER THIS MORNING  AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ENCOMPASSED
MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOUDS LOOK TO
BE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30-35 MPH. AT THIS PACE MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY 1-2 PM. AS A
RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CURBED SLIGHTLY...BUT
STILL IN THE MIDDLE...TO MAYBE UPPER 50S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/ 

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE MEM
AIRPORT. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS
WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN.

TODAY...A PLEASANT DAY SHAPING UP THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EAST. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F OVER THE SOUTH. LATER TODAY CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TREKS EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT....BACKING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. 
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BELOW 700MB. THIS WILL TAKE
AWHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE QPF AMOUNTS OF
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE FORTY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER STAYING IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT
HOURS...AND NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS DEVELOPING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL AND DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED
DESPITE AN APPROACHING POTENT COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE IN POPS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING NORTHERLY BY LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SLIGHTLY FROM THURSDAY...WITH MORE HIGHS IN THE 50S. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AS A 1032MB
CANADIAN HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS WITH NORTHERN
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 30S. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
LIKE WINTER ALL OVER AGAIN WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. WIDESPREAD
LOWS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
STILL FEEL THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE EURO IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS MORE
COLD. NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON EITHER SOLUTION JUST YET...SO FOR
NOW HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF BOTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...TURNING TO ALL RAIN ON MONDAY.
AGREE HOWEVER THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH THIS PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS DROP INTO MVFR LEVELS
AND KMEM...KMKL AND KJBR. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  42  51  34 /  10  20  10  10 
MKL  55  38  48  29 /  10  20  10  10 
JBR  56  38  46  30 /  10  30  10  10 
TUP  59  41  56  32 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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