Discussions

405 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH MOSTLY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPEARATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. IN THE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
INDUCED... SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BROUGHT INTO PLAY SATURDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR IS
PULLED SOUTH FROM CANADA. FORTUNATELY FOR THIS AREA...THE COLDEST
AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT AT LEAST ONE
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
AREA WIDE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A COLD DAY BUT DRY. THEN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT COULD POSE A PROBLEM DURING ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. IF CLOUDS PRECEDE THE TROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED...READINGS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE
FREEZING. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT CLOSER TO WEEKEND TO SEE HOW THIS COMES
TOGETHER. MONDAY LOOKS WET AND COLD...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF OF STRONG RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND DEEPER LOW IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG CONVECTION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS. THE
RETURN OF GULF FLOW INTO THE REGION WOULD ALSO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP. ECM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOLDING OFF
UNTIL MIDWEEK. WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR NOW...JUST KEEPING THE 
NUMBERS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION 
TODAY. IR IMAGERY/OBS SHOW MVFR STRATUS SINKING INTO OUR NRN 
SECTIONS...AND MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT KTXK/KELD BEFORE 
SUNRISE. EXPECTING ANY STRATUS TO MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...AS LIGHT 
NW WINDS INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ISSUES ARE 
ANTICIPATED THIS PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  36  57  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30 
MLU  58  35  55  35  57 /   0  10   0  10  30 
DEQ  54  32  53  37  53 /   0   0  10  20  30 
TXK  55  35  54  39  55 /   0   0   0  20  30 
ELD  57  33  55  34  55 /   0   0   0  10  30 
TYR  56  36  57  41  57 /   0   0   0  30  30 
GGG  57  35  57  40  57 /   0   0   0  20  30 
LFK  61  38  58  42  62 /   0   0   0  20  40 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/12

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