• Kyle, Texas, United States (78640)
  • WxZone: TXZ191ICAO: KHYILat: 29.99NLon: 97.88W
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1129 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012

.AVIATION...
I35 TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HORUS. CIG AT AUS WILL BECOME SCT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA MAY SCT BRIEFLY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BKN/OVC. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME AROUND 15 KTS LATE MORNING WED BEFORE
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT DRT THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP THE RIO GRANDE AND
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE MORNING WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...
TODAYS EARLY FEB. 2012 WEATHER PATTERNS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
SLIGHTLY FEWER CLOUDS FOR PART OF TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING 
CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 500 HPA TROF 
FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO NEAR OK AND N TX LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 850 TO 200 HPA ACROSS S CNTRL TX TODAY AND FROM
700 TO 200 HPA TONIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
COOLER AIR TO COME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TO THE WEST A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE SW U.S. AND NW
MEXICO...AS 700 TO 500 HPA WINDS BECOME SW OVER S CNTRL TX. THE
PATTERN FAVORS OVERRUNNING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND FITS TRENDS THAT EVOLVED IN THE FALL OF 2011...THAT HAVE
PERSISTED TO THE WINTER OF 2011/2012 SO FAR. AT ANY RATE...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...AS
THE HEIGHT FIELD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALOFT...WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOW A 2ND APPROACHING 500 HPA S/W TROF COMING FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO CNTRL AND N TX FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MERGE WITH THE SLOW MOVING TROF COMING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR AN EARLY TO MID FEB
SETTING...OR IN SUMMARY A COOL AND DAMP PERIOD STILL SEEMS 
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY... A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FEWER CLOUDS SHOWS UP...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN. A FASTER MOVING DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM WEST TEXAS TO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS THEN BRING ANOTHER
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...THAT WILL BRING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE STEADY CLEARING
TREND WED THRU THU OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THIS
WEEK. FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK.  

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE THIS WEEK. 150 KT JET
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL HELP DIG ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CA TO
REINFORCE A CLOUDY AND COOL TREND FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY TO MAKE FOR POSSIBLY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE
DIGGING DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST WILL BRING BACK THE COOL AND
CLOUDY DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE
DENSITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN
PLACE EVEN IF THE POST FRONTAL SKIES ARE NOT CLOUDY. MODEL RUN-TO-
RUN TRENDS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOW TEMPS LEVELING OFF TO
EASE CONCERNS THAT A SURPRISE COLD AIR BLAST AND WINTER WEATHER
EVENT COULD BE PROMOTED BY THE LARGE MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COLD RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE SINCE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS NE OVER TX BY
THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP A PATTERN FOR A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  39  59  39  52 /  -   -   10  10  10 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  38  58  35  52 /  -   -   10  10  20 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  39  59  38  51 /  -   10  10  10  20 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  37  54  36  52 /  -   -   10  10  10 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  42  58  44  56 /  -   10  10  20  30 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  36  56  35  53 /  -   -   10  10  10 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  41  58  40  52 /  -   10  10  10  30 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  39  58  37  51 /  -   -   10  10  20 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  42  59  39  55 /  10  10  10  10  30 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  41  58  41  51 /  -   10  10  10  30 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  42  58  42  51 /  -   10  10  10  30 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
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