Discussions

452 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH 
TEMPERATURES SEE-SAWING UP AND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. 
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO 
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST 
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS 
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY.  AMPLE SUNSHINE AND BARE GROUND IN 
EARLY FEBRUARY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 
MIDDLE 30S BY MID AFTERNOON.  

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...AND COULD WARM CLOSE 
TO 50 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITH FULL SUN...TEMPS SHOULD  
MIX OUT THROUGH 900 MB...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO 
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST NAM80 MODEL SHOWING 
MINUS 22 TO 25 OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. 850 MB 
TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT READINGS TODAY. 
THUS...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. 

THE DRY WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE SFC 
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. 700 MB 
HEIGHTS RISES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK 
CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY. THIS 
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY 
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BRING A WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM 
COULD BRING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING.   

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

NO AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS SE SD...SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SE. WNDS
TODAY WILL REMAIN FROM THE W/WNW ARND 6 TO 12 KTS...THEN BECOME
MORE WSW THIS EVENING...THEN SW BY THU MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLR...WITH CIGS AOA 25K OVERNIGHT.

MSP...WNDS WILL BECOME WNW LATE THIS MORNING TO ARND 8 TO 10
KTS...THAN MORE W/WSW BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING BUT DECREASE TO
ARND 5 KTS. BY THU MORNING...A SW WND IS EXPECTED WITH SPDS
INCREASING TO ARND 12 KTS BY 18Z. 

.FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.SAT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. 
.SUN...VFR. 
..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JVM/JLT

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