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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Difficult forecast in terms of convection today. Models generally
do not have a great handle on things...though the 00Z 3km NAM is
impressively in line with current convection. This model...along
with several others including the past several runs of HRRR keep
the bulk of the convection north of our forecast area this
morning, though some isolated showers will be possible, mainly in
the northern Coastal Bend. The big question for the day will be
where an outflow from the convection north of us lands today as
this will likely become a focus for afternoon convective
development. Latest models are trending more north with this
boundary, and it`s possible we only see isolated to scattered
activity here this afternoon. But...it`s also possible the
boundary drifts closer and we see a line of storms push through
our area. There is a slight chance for strong to severe storms for
our northern tier of counties and a marginal risk south.
Basically, if we get convection, it could become strong to severe
with 0-6km shear values above 50kt and plenty of cape, especially
south of the lingering boundary.

Low level moisture remains deep enough Sunday night to maintain a
chance for isolated showers, but heading into Monday that
moisture gets quite shallow and shouldremaining be the end of any
notable rain chances. After a very seasonal day (for high
temperatures), we`ll begin our warming trend tomorrow, adding 5+
degrees to today`s values. The Rio Grande Plains should top out in
the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 100
degrees and higher for much of the region from Tuesday through
Thursday.
- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

Onshore flow will keep above normal moisture in place across South
Texas through much of this week. Temperatures will begin to rise,
peaking Thursday, as hot and dry air from the Mexican Plateau
expands eastward above the region. These hot temperatures will mix
down to the surface each afternoon through Thursday before a front
moves through helping to cool things down a bit.

HeatRisk values (level 3 out of 4) for much of South Texas suggest a
significant risk to all individuals who are exposed to the sun and
active or are in a heat-sensitive group. There is a moderate to high
chance that heat index values in excess of 100 degrees will occur
Tuesday through Thursday for the majority of the region. Some
locations may approach heat indices of 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory
may be needed towards the middle of the week, especially for the
Southern Coastal Bend region.

A front looks to move through Thursday night, which will usher in
drier air and temperatures closer to normal (mid-80s near the coast
to upper 80s/low 90s inland). There will also be a low chance of
precipitation with this front, but there remains significant
uncertainty this far out.|

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mostly MVFR conditions this morning, however VCT has broken out
to VFR due to subsidence from nearby dissipating convection. Difficult
forecast for today, mainly in terms of convective potential.
Outflow boundary from convection north of the area appears to be
settled north of most of South Texas, but is close to VCT. Thus,
think the best potential for showers and storms is at the VCT
terminal today and have several hours of VCTS during the middle of
the day. Some convection could move south toward other terminals
in the late afternoon hours, but lower confidence in this. VFR
conditions should return to all sites late this morning and into
the afternoon before another repeat with lower CIGS tonight.

&&
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