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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
(15-40% chances) across portions of north Georgia today and
tomorrow.

- Afternoon highs will continue to inch back toward (and above)
seasonal norms, topping out in the 80s to lower 90s.

Discussion:

A series of disturbances traversing the southern edge of
broader mid-level troughing will sweep across the Tennessee River
Valley through Thursday, weakening the antecedent wedge airmass/cool
dome in place. Surface winds will continue to veer to the southwest
by early afternoon, allowing for the intrusion of warmer, slightly
more moisture-rich air (dewpoints gradually returning to the 60s).
This combined with improved forcing in the vicinity of the
aforementioned waves will allow for continued low-end chances for
convection relegated primarily to north Georgia. Isolated to
scattered light showers (15-30% chances) are possible through the
morning today -- generally along the GA/TN border and across
northeast Georgia -- with chances for isolated thunderstorms
mixing in with onset of diurnal heating. Very similar trends are
expected tomorrow, albeit with slightly higher coverage (20-40%
chances Thursday afternoon) owing to bolstered lift associated
with an approaching pre-frontal trough.

Temperatures will continue to moderate with rebounding moisture,
topping out in the 80s today and warming by just a few degrees for
Thursday, into the lower 90s for south central Georgia. Expect lows
in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Rain chances remain low (~20% or less) until early next week,
when a slight uptick in coverage of showers/storms is
expected.

- A warming trend heading into the weekend, followed by a cool-down
early next week.

Discussion:

The long term period starts off on Thursday night with ensemble
guidance depicting a stout, sprawling low pressure system positioned
just north of the Great Lakes over Canada, with cyclonically-curved
mid-/upper-level flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
While moisture is expected to increase heading into the weekend,
guidance does not depict development of a surface low south of the
parent low much farther north. The result here in Georgia will be
weakly-forced, isolated showers and storms at most, with much of the
area likely remaining rain-free through the weekend. High
temperatures will gradually increase heading into the weekend, with
lower 90s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday across much of the area.

Ensemble guidance indicates a cold front passage Sunday through
Monday, which is forecast to drop high temperatures into the lower
80s during the first half of next week. Moisture return and ascent
along/near the front continue to support 20% to 30% PoPs during this
time frame, although there is uncertainty regarding how far south
the front moves before steering flow becomes parallel to it. There
are no strong signals in model guidance for severe weather (mid-
/upper-level flow appears relatively weak and instability parameters
are meager) but a storm or two will be possible each day, especially
if any disturbances develop aloft amid the troughing pattern and
support localized increases in shear and/or instability.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conds to continue thru the TAF pd. Expect primarily SCT-BKN
cigs at 5-12kft. Chances for -SHRA/-TSRA currently too low for
explicit TAF mention (15% or less) for metro sites, but cannot
rule out iso VC impacts depending on trends in development. Winds
will be CALM/VRB overnight but generally favoring the E side until
16-17Z when they will shift SW at speeds of 7kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence precipitation chances.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&
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