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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Significant rainfall is not anticipated in the region through
at least the middle of next week.

- Gusty winds up to 25 mph can be expected tomorrow afternoon,
mainly in north Georgia.

- Generally mild temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-40s
to lower 60s, will continue through the end of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Based on current satellite trends, low clouds have struggled to
dissipate today with low clouds continuing over the southern parts
of central Georgia. Temps today as a result have been nudged down
every so slightly to account for the lingering cloud cover. Continue
to expect cool and dry conditions through the remainder of the
evening. A small vort max at 500mb pushing through the overall flow
has resulted in the high cloud cover beginning to build in over
northwest Georgia. Temperatures today top out in the mid 40s to mid
50s. Could see low clouds again tomorrow morning as there is some
indication enough moisture will be present just above the surface.

Winds turn SW through today in anticipation of the approaching cold
front that is expected to push through tomorrow evening. These SW
winds are expected to bring in warm air resulting in high temps
tomorrow in the upper 50s to low 60s which is just above normal.
This won`t last long though as cooler temperatures are again
expected into the early part of the weekend directly after this cold
front. There doesn`t look to be enough moisture for rain during this
passage but should see winds pick up into the afternoon and evening
tomorrow in association. Widespread 20-25mph winds can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

By Thursday, much of CONUS will be situated under northwesterly flow
at the mid-levels. Expect this pattern to continue well into the
weekend, owing to persistent troughing across eastern Canada and the
Great Lakes. With surface high pressure building in and lingering
across the Southeast through Friday, dry and mild conditions will
prevail to round off the week and start the weekend. Highs initially
in the mid-40s to mid-50s on Thursday will warm fairly substantially
into the 60s to near 70 on Friday.

Moving into Saturday proper, any remnants of our presiding surface
high pressure system will be nudged offshore by a closed low diving
across the Great Lakes, accompanied at the surface by a cold front
riding along the leading edge of an Arctic airmass. As the front
begins to approach Georgia from the northwest, a weak but quick-
hitting disturbance nosing across the Ohio River Valley will support
some leading low-end chances (10-20%) for showers for areas
generally along and north of I-85. As moisture begins to rebound,
these chances will likely linger until best frontal forcing arrives
late Saturday/early Sunday, but most will remain dry, with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Global model guidance has trended slower with the arrival of the
front and continues to struggle with the potential for both highs
and lows significantly colder than what is being captured by the
deterministic NBM on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. On Sunday, a 1040+
mb Arctic high (approximately 1-2 stdev above average) will begin to
spread across much of ECONUS, with a frontal boundary demarcating
the much cooler, much drier airmass being ushered in in its wake.
The aforementioned front looks to breach northwest Georgia early
Sunday morning, with 30-40% chances for showers overspreading much
of north and north central Georgia. Rainfall is unlikely to be
substantial (totals on the order of a tenth to an eighth of an
inch), and chances will fizzle out into the afternoon.

How far north the core of the Arctic high settles is crucial to
forecast development Sunday and beyond, and is the catalyst for the
significant spread that exists amongst ensemble temperature
guidance. The Euro detours the coldest air across the Ohio River
Valley before settling directly atop Georgia/the Carolinas, while
the GFS favors the airmass becoming more diffuse/taking a more
northward path. A weakening trend in the surface high has been noted
in successive runs, which would support moderating of the cool
airmass as it nudges southward. That said, with NBM 25th and 75th
percentile high and low temperatures continuing to differ by as much
as 12-18 degrees, and the 10th and 90th percentiles spanning as much
as 25 to 30 degrees, this could mean the difference between highs in
the 30s to lower 40s versus highs in the 60s to near 70. The
deterministic NBM forecast temperatures have since trended downward
toward the 50th percentile for Saturday, but remain somewhere
between the 60th and 75th percentile for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday. All this to say: there is a lowering but nonzero chance
that we could still see a significant dip in forecast temperatures
approaching the latter half of the weekend/beginning of next week as
model guidance gets a better handle on the location of key
features.

&&
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