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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Clusters of thunderstorms associated with the cold front are
pushing eastward through the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening. Main threats being strong wind gusts (40-60mph)
and hail up to 1".

-Cooler temperatures tomorrow behind the front with dry
conditions for much of the area.

Discussion:

Current radar shows a cluster of storms over the NW metro area
which prompted a severe thunderstorm warning recently with 1" hail
reported and winds up to 45-55mph. This broken line extends from
NE GA to central AL and is expected to continue to push
east/southeast through ~8-10pm tonight. The main threats continue
to be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and strong wind gusts
(40-60mph). Frequent lightning is also a concern especially for
outdoor activities. Current mesoanalysis shows a favorable
environment as temps have warmed into the the upper 80s to low 90s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s in the untapped area which has
resulted in CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg. The shear isn`t overly
impressive but overall still enough energy out there for storms to
become strong with isolated severe.

After the front pushes southward, should see drier conditions with
temps cooling down. Temps tomorrow will range from the upper 70s
in the northern portions of the state to the mid to upper 80s
across the central portion of the state. Could still see isolated
to scattered thunderstorms across southeast central Georgia as the
front continues to move into Florida.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry weather aside from isolated showers and storms
confined to the far southern portions of the forecast area.

- Mild and gradually warming temperatures over the next 5 to 7
days.

Discussion:

The next 5 to 7 days will be largely uneventful for North and
Central Georgia. We will be post-frontal at the start of the long
term with mid-to upper level troughing across much of the eastern
CONUS and high pressure building/extending southward from the Great
Lakes Region. With the front well to our south rain or thunder
chances will be confined to the far southern portions of the
forecast area (< 25% chance) between Monday and Wednesday. Another
reinforcing dry cold front looks to move through the area late this
week keeping things dry through at least the start of next weekend.

As far as temperatures go, we are mild to start with forecast highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s (5-10 degrees cooler in the mountains)
and gradually warming back into the mid to upper 80s towards the end
of next week. Forecast low temperatures will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s (slightly cooler in the mountains).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Broken line of TSRA is pushing eastward currently with the
expectation to push into the metro ATL TAF sites in the next 30
min to an hour. These should continue pushing through until
~22-23z when the line pushes into eastern GA. VRB wind gusts are
possible with this line but then after we should see skies go
back to VFR. Tomorrow morning there is a chance for scattered low
end MVFR between 09 and 12z before lifting to a scattered cu
field.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high on TSRA timing.
Medium on MVFR in morning.
Hernandez

&&
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