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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

At a glance:

- A few lingering showers are possible across central and SE Georgia.

- Dry air will settle in over the rest of the short term making for
pleasant weather.

The cold front can still be observed draped across the SE but is
expected to start it`s push off to the NE today, clearing the area
late this afternoon and into the evening. A few showers are possible
today, especially where the dewpoints are still in the 70s south of
a line from CSG to MCN.

Once the front clears though we`re looking at some very nice early
fall conditions setting in to start off the week. Highs will be in
the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s and
lows 60s. Winds will be out of the NW today at around 10-15 mph with
a few gusts up to 20 mph. Those winds will ease as the front moves
off the coast, leading us into a quiet long term.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry with a low chance (<20%) of showers and storms south
of a line from Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro through Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures through the period, but gradually warming up
during the second half of the week.

Discussion:

The first couple days of the long term period won`t quite be fall-
like, but will offer a little taste of a cool-down. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to mid-80s. On Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, highs
will tick up into the mid-80s to upper 80s. Temps in the mountains
will be 5-10 degrees cooler.

While troughing will prevail in the mid/upper levels across the
Southeast, ensemble guidance depicts 850 mb ridging developing and
strengthening beneath over the course of the period. This will
increase subsidence and warming in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, reflected in the gradually increasing temperatures
through the week.

A subtle change in this forecast package is a reduction in PoPs
across the southern tier of the forecast area through Wednesday.
Will still message the possibility (~20% chance or lower) for
showers and storms south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro, but this may end up being too generous as PoPs in the
gridded forecast now barely clip Telfair, Wheeler, Montgomery, and
Emanuel Counties. Will continue to message near-zero severe weather
potential as the front that is currently pushing through the state
will have shifted well south of the forecast area and will not be
proximate enough to provide lift/convergence.
07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Some lingering BKN ceilings remain now that the front has passed,
with some spotty IFR. Conditions will improve back to VFR by 15Z. NW
Winds around 10kts could gust to 10 kts after 18Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&
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