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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered storms expected through this evening
with the main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph) and
locally heavy rainfall.

- Heat advisory has been expanded northwestward tomorrow for
heat indices from 105-108.


Discussion:

High pressure has built in over the area with current temps
already in the mid 90s across central Georgia and a high in the
mid to upper 90s expected. Moisture is still flowing into the area
which in conjunction with the heat is allowing for storms to pop
up around the area with west Georgia as the main focus. Most of
these storms have been relatively short lived and are staying
below severe criteria but cannot rule out gusty winds (40-50mph),
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with these storms. Higher
than normal PWATs will contribute to the potential for precip
loading and higher than normal rain rates over the area. Tomorrow
should see another rinse and repeat forecast with the high
pressure over our area with rain chances remaining mostly less
than 20% across the area for one more day.

For heat, heat indices are already reaching 105-108 across the
heat advisory area with upper 90s to low 100s everywhere else.
Overnight lows are only expected to reach into the mid to upper
70s, thus the decision was made to extend the current heat
advisory until tomorrow night and then expand it northwestward to
account for tomorrows heat indices. Tomorrow should see temps in
the mid to upper 90s mainly south and east of the I-85 corridor
with heat index values in the 105-109 range for this area.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening.

- Monitoring for potential tropical development in the Gulf.

- Additional Heat Advisories will be possible through midweek.

Discussion:

A subtropical ridge will be in place over much of the Southeast
through the long term period. At the start of the period, a
low-/mid-level disturbance is progged to drift eastward over
Florida and into the eastern/central Gulf. The National Hurricane
Center (NHC) is continuing with a 20% chance of tropical
development associated with this disturbance in the next 7 days.
In addition to providing a source of lift, this disturbance will
bring with it a slug of tropical moisture characterized by PWAT
values as high as ~2.1 inches per ensemble guidance, regardless of
any tropical development. This soupy environment will drive
scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development each
day, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Mesoscale features
like remnant cloud cover (and resulting differential heating
boundaries) and outflow boundaries from earlier convection will
largely govern where storm development is favored each day. Weak
steering flow amid the ridge will lead to slow-moving/stationary
and possibly back-building storms, which will pose localized
torrential rainfall and flash flooding concerns. For now, WPC has
Day 3 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) and Day 4 (Wednesday/Wednesday
night) Marginal Risks for excessive rainfall across at least a
portion of north and central Georgia, but these risk areas may be
adjusted over the next couple of days to account for the latest
trends in coverage of convection, rainfall amounts, and soil
moisture from previous days of rainfall.

The increasing moisture -- especially with the highest PWAT
values likely to be across the southern two-thirds or so of the
forecast area, closest to the disturbance in the Gulf -- will mean
that heat index values will bear watching. Where temperatures
reach the mid-/upper-90s in the afternoon and dew points are in
the mid-70s is where heat index values will range from around 105
to 108 degrees. A caveat is that earlier-onset convection and/or
cloud cover may prevent enough daytime heating to achieve said
heat index values.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
outside of any SHRA/TSRA. Iso SHRA/TSRA around the ATL area sites
over the next few hours will diminish overnight. Another round of
SHRA/TSRA can be expected on Monday afternoon, though coverage
will be low and PROB30 may be too aggressive. Outside of any
impacts from SHRA/TSRA, winds will generally remain WNW at 4-8 kts
or less tonight, turning out of the NW at 7-11 kts after 15Z
Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on TSRA chances tomorrow.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Culver

&&
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