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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Diurnally-driven, scattered thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon and evening.

- Hot and humid conditions will ramp up into the weekend with Heat
Index values soaring to above 105.

Trapped moisture under the building subtropical ridge will continue
to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the short
term. No widespread or organized severe weather is expected at this
time, but any strong storms are capable of producing gusty winds,
locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

The strengthening high pressure will heat up temperatures into the
weekend. Have adjusted Friday dew points down slightly to account
for afternoon mixing, but Heat Index values still look to reach 105
to 107 in isolated areas of east and central Georgia. Will allow
overnight shift to tailor these forecast elements before deciding on
a Heat Advisory.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Muggy, hot conditions will persist through the long term
forecast period with Heat Advisories more likely for
portions of the area by the weekend.

- Mainly isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the weekend with chances trending upward by early next
week.

The theme for the bulk of the long term forecast period will
continue to be the hot and summery temperatures. The persistent
midlevel ridge will remain anchored over the southeastern US,
providing plenty of impetus for ongoing heat. These temperatures
look likely to reach an apex over the weekend into early next week
with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s areawide through this time
frame. Apparent temperatures will exceed 100 for most locations
(outside of the mountains) each afternoon with 105-110 more likely
across east central Georgia. Thus, probabilities are highest for
Heat Advisory issuance across Middle and east central Georgia
counties, though some potential does exist for a Heat Advisory to
extend farther northward toward the Atlanta metro by Sunday into
Monday as temperatures and heat index values peak.

Chances for rainfall will remain relatively lower through the
weekend with generally only isolated to widely scattered diurnal
convection possible each afternoon/evening. PoPs begin to trend
upward by Monday courtesy of an approaching backdoor cold front.
As a tough swings through New England, a weak frontal boundary
should push southwestward across the Carolinas and toward the area
by late Monday. As surface high pressure drops from Quebec into
New England on Tuesday, the frontal boundary looks to get a
further nudge into our area with a weak summer CAD pattern setting
up. Given the frontal interaction with the deep moisture in
place, an increased coverage of diurnally-enhanced showers and
thunderstorms will likely occur during the Monday-Wednesday time
frame. While no significant cooldown is in the offing, increased
convective coverage could offer hope for some afternoon relief.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over western GA
this afternoon, but then diminish late evening. Lower ceilings
(SCT-BKN MVFR, FEW-SCT IFR) will spread into west GA after 07-08Z
and will be slow to improve through 12-14Z. SW-SE winds of 5-8kt
are expected through this afternoon and evening, with light and
variable overnight, before resuming again Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence cigs Friday morning.
High confidence all other elements.

31

&&
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