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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

At a glance:

- Summer isn`t going down without a fight.

- Toasty Temps and scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.

Another day in the 90s for the CWA, though cooler and drier air is
lined up for the start of next week. Humid conditions under SW winds
will help drive the heat indices up towards triple digits along and
south of I-20. Thunderstorm activity will gradually spread south
through the day with the entire system pushing off to the northeast
by tomorrow.

TSRA conditions are expected to become more widespread mainly from
areas along and north of the I-85 corridor today as the front
approaches. Dry air aloft will largely contain the southern push of
thunderstorms. It will also help to put a cap on the severe
potential, although a few storms could be strong with an isolated
severe wind gusts. Colder air aloft could cause a few storms to drop
pea to dime sized hail across northern GA as well.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry with isolated showers and storms generally confined to
the southern portion of the forecast area.

- Cold front passage at the start of the period will promote mild
conditions through midweek.

Discussion:

The long term period picks up in the wake of a cold front passage.

Mid-/upper-level troughing will be the rule, with any appreciable
moisture largely displaced south of the CWA. As a result, PoPs are
capped at ~30% and are confined to the southern portion of the CWA.
The vast majority of the area will be rain-free through the period
thanks to the drying effects of high pressure.

Northeasterly/easterly surface/low-level winds will have a
moderating effect on temperature`s well after the initial push of
the front. High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and low
temps will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Temps will be some
5-10 degrees cooler in the mountains. High temps will return to
the mid- 80s to upper 80s at the end of the week.

There is no concern for severe weather as shear and instability
parameters are still lacking in the ensemble guidance. We are still
somewhat in the warm season, however, so cannot rule out a strong
storm or two each day across the southern portion of the CWA, where
some moisture and convergence will remain in the vicinity of the
then-diffuse front.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A front will approach after 17Z bringing a low VFR/high MVFR ceiling
and a chance for -TSRA which has been indicated with a PROB30; a
TEMPO may be needed depending on how much progress the front makes
this morning. Light winds will be variable before picking up on
the SW side after 14Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on -TSRA chances.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&
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