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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
203 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
into evening with main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph)
and frequent lightning.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected tomorrow
afternoon as front pushes southward with marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) in effect for isolated damaging wind gusts
(60mph).

- Localized flash flooding and/or nuisance flooding may
accompany storms that develop.

Discussion:

For today, low clouds have taken longer to dissipate which could
limit the development of thunderstorms this afternoon. Current
satellite shows a cu field ~3-4kft which has resulted in isolated
showers that have been slow to vertically develop. With the
overall pattern largely unchanged, expecting showers and
thunderstorms to be isolated in nature with the potential for
strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Of note are PWATs with
the morning sounding showing 1.8" and the current RAP analysis
showing an area of 1.8-2" PWAT values over western Georgia.
With above average PWAT values and little to no shear, can expect
these thunderstorms to be efficient rainfall producers with
little to no movement thus increasing the potential for localized
flash flooding. The western GA area will be the area to keep an
eye on for flooding concerns based off the analysis.

For tomorrow, expecting the pattern to begin to shift with the
upper level trough swinging eastward and dragging a frontal
boundary southward across our area Tuesday into Wednesday. This
front will serve as an area of forcing over the area contributing
the modest but not overly impressive shear and CAPE values.
CAMs are suggesting a linear formation for these storms as they
push across Georgia into the evening and early overnight. Of note
is the forecast soundings show more of a long and skinny CAPE
profile and PWAT values close to 2" which are indicative of the
potential for water loading as well as increased risk for
localized flash flooding. SPC and WPC both have the area in a
MArginal Risk for severe weather and flooding respectively.

Storms should limit temps to the upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow but
overall still looking at a hot and humid short term.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Near-normal moisture is expected on Wednesday.

- Drier conditions are anticipated Thursday.

- Lower confidence in forecast for Friday onward, associated with
uncertainty on the potential for the development of low
pressure near the panhandle of Florida.

On Wednesday, moisture levels will be near seasonal normals across
Georgia. As such, seasonally typical weather is anticipated, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. An upper-level trough is
forecast to be north of the region, with an area of locally
stronger winds associated with this. This could further aid in the
development of afternoon convection. There is high confidence in the
potential for climatologically normal afternoon convection on
Wednesday.

On Thursday, moisture is forecast to decrease across the region,
under the influence of building surface high pressure over the
Appalachians eroding the deep-layer trough and moisture over
Georgia, and especially over north Georgia. Because of this, there
will be a decreased risk of showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast confidence decreases on Friday through the weekend. Model
guidance up until this point is in good agreement for the general
trend of typical conditions that become drier into the end of the
workweek. However, on Friday, model guidance begins to show
disagreement with the arrival of a mid- to upper-level ridge from
the west. The ECMWF shows a continuation of the trend from Thursday
into early next week, with near-normal to below-normal moisture
levels across Georgia. This would indicate the potential for lower
precipitation chances, and decreased coverage of any potential
thunderstorms that may develop. In contrast, the GFS suggests an
increase in moisture across Georgia. The main difference driving
this discrepancy is the models` handling of the potential for the
development of low pressure over the panhandle of Florida/Gulf
coast. The ECMWF does show the development of a low, but it
maintains the low as a weak and broad low pressure system. The GFS
suggests the potential for a strengthening of the low, as well as
consolidation, size-wise, south of the panhandle of Florida. Should
the GFS scenario play out, additional moisture would be pushed over
the southeastern United States off of the Gulf through the weekend
into early next week. The result would be higher than normal
moisture levels and therefore also a likely increase in potential
for showers and thunderstorms. It should be noted that the National
Hurricane Center has a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 7 days from over the Gulf west of Florida to
the Atlantic east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. There is
low forecast confidence for conditions over Georgia, particularly
for Saturday into early next week, and this will likely remain the
case until there is more certainty in the potential for development -
or not - of any low pressure system or tropical cyclone to the
south of the area.

CRS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Low cigs (MVFR to IFR, possibly patchy LIFR) are likely to develop
again this morning with improvements anticipated between 14-15z.
Shra/tsra may develop as early as 16z but additional tsra expected
closer to 20-21z in association with an approaching front. Latest
guidance indicates -shra and sct tsra to persist after 00z, thus
exact timing of tsra remains uncertain. Low clouds and patchy fog
will be possible again Tuesday night. Light/VRB winds tonight will
pick up out of the W/SW at 4-8kts Tuesday. Gusts are likely to
accompany storms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on low AM cigs and timing of tsra
High confidence on remaining elements

07

&&
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