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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
840 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025


.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

As the sea breeze has worked its way inland, scattered showers and
thunderstorms have advanced into east-central Georgia. These
storms are expected to be sub-severe, though stronger storms will
still be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally heavy
rain, and gusty winds. However, with the loss of daytime heating,
the coverage of storms will diminish over the next few hours.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments have been made based on the
latest observations and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered storms expected through this evening
with the main threats being gusty winds (40-50 mph) and
locally heavy rainfall.

- Heat advisory in effect through 8pm tonight for heat index
values in excess of 105.

- Increasing chances for scattered to widespread thunderstorms
particularly along I-85 tomorrow.

Discussion:

High pressure over a portion of our area has contributed to the
increased temperatures across the area with an emphasis on central
and eastern GA with temps currently in the mid 90s which are
expected to increase into the upper 90s in this area. Heat index
values are also elevated with many areas reaching 105 or higher
currently. When it comes to thunderstorms today, the heat is
allowing for pop up storms with a remnant boundary resulting in
the small cluster of storms over western GA currently. This area
and then southeastern central GA are the areas of focus for any
thunderstorms today with the seabreeze contributing to this area.
Storms should remain sub severe with winds at 40-50mph, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out an isolated severe
thunderstorm inside of the marginal risk (level 1 6 hours tomorrow
5) area which is focused on southeast central GA but chances
remain low for this to occur.

Going into tomorrow, as the area of low pressure highlighted by
NHC pushes westward across Florida while the high pressure stays
in place to our west. This would result in an easterly flow
pushing up against the current westerly flow which could prove
interesting for the area. CAMs have been indicating the potential
for a convergence zone over the I-85 corridor which could set up a
band over this area of slower moving precip. With tropical PWATs
of ~2" this would lead to the potential for flooding if the band
is able to stay stationary for a longer period of time. Currently
the HREF mean precipitation for this I-85 corridor is ~0.5-0.75"
with 90th percentile showing 3-3.5" which would become a concern.
Will be keeping an eye on it through the evening and overnight to
keep the messaging updated as more runs of the HREF come in.
Temps tomorrow could again get close to heat advisory criteria but
with the increase PoPs and cloud cover, elected to not go with
one but heat index values are expected to be in the 100-104 range
tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening.

- Monitoring for potential tropical development in the Gulf mid-
to late-week.

- Heat index values may be borderline for Heat Advisory
issuance through the end of the week.

Discussion:

The mid-/upper-levels will be characterized by a subtropical
ridge over much of the Southeast. In the lower-levels, a
disturbance is progged to traverse westward (I`m realizing now
that I mistakenly said "eastward" in my discussion yesterday!)
into the central Gulf. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is
continuing with a 30% chance of tropical development associated
with this disturbance in the next 7 days -- specifically, by mid-
to late-week. This disturbance will provide lift/ascent for
scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development across
north and central Georgia. While ensemble guidance suggests that
this disturbance -- regardless of tropical nomenclature -- will
likely continue to track westward/northwestward into the western
Gulf, it will bring with it an expansive moisture field
characterized by PWAT values as high as ~2.1 inches. We are
becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for localized
flash flooding as thunderstorms in this soupy environment will be
efficient rainfall-producers and will be slow-movers, given weak
steering flow. The localized nature of flash flooding (as well as
other convective hazards like gusty to damaging winds and frequent
lightning) will be largely driven by mesoscale features each day,
including remnant cloud cover and resulting differential heating
boundaries, as well as outflow boundaries from convection earlier
in the day or the previous day.

WPC has Marginal Risks (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall:
across the northeast Georgia mountains on Wednesday, barely
clipping the northeast Georgia mountains on Thursday, and across
much of north Georgia on Friday. These risk areas will likely be
tweaked over the next day or two, depending on how much rainfall
occurs in the short term period. Would not be surprised to see
issuance of a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) at some point.

It looks like increasing coverage of showers and storms, as well
as increasing cloud cover, may make for heat index values that are
borderline for Heat Advisory issuances through the end of the
week. Saturday and Sunday may bring increasing temperatures and
humidity across portions of central and eastern Georgia.

Martin

&&
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