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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Very isolated showers will continue across north and portions
of west Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible across far north Georgia.

- Slow warming trend continues. Lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s,
possible a few 90s in east central Georgia.

Forecast:

Some very light showers have pushed into portions of northern and
western Georgia this afternoon as a remnant of some early day
convection over portions of Alabama that has advected eastward.
These are very light when they are reaching the ground. The
exception to this is in the mountains of NE GA, where terrain has
provided some extra forcing for lift and we are seeing a few
convective cells take off and provide a quick shot of rain to the
surrounding areas. These trends should continue through the rest of
the afternoon. No severe or even strong storms really expected,
given lack of shear and surface temperatures/moisture remaining
relatively poor for early September.

Speaking of those surface temps, we have another mild, pleasant day
thanks to a combination of some cloud cover across the north and the
easterly to northeasterly winds from the lingering wedge/CAD.
Aloft, we still have a broad trough over the area associated with
a filling low that has been mostly cut off from the upper level
polar jet. Surface high over the NE CONUS continues to weaken, but
our wedge persists thanks to a surface low spinning off the
Florida coastline that is forecast to ride the baroclinic zone of
the wedge airmass meeting the warm, moist Gulf Stream airmass to
the NE over the coming 24-48 hours. Tonight, a little lobe of
upper level PV will move within the trough bringing some lift of
moisture across northern Georgia that should enhance rain/tstorm
chances as said moisture is lifted isentropically. This should be
mostly in the form of lighter showers, but can`t rule out
something taking off convectively for a few rumbles of thunder in
the environment. These could drift as far south as the metro by
sunrise, but the overall probability of seeing something is too
low to warrant any mention on the webpages for this forecast
package.

Wednesday will see the wedge start to break down as a much stronger
system begins to sweep into the upper midwest and the aforementioned
surface low off the east coast moves away. Flow at the surface
should begin to switch more southerly, but moisture return will
still take some time. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer, but still
seasonable, as a result. Best rain chances will remain across
northern Georgia where better overall moisture availability remains.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms over north GA Thursday, dry air
Friday and return of showers and storms late weekend into mid
week.

- Above normal temperatures into the weekend before cold front
moderates temperatures mid next week.

Discussion:

Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected on Thursday evening
before a shortwave pushes through the overall troughing pattern over
the eastern CONUS. This shortwave will push a frontal boundary into
the area into Friday morning which should usher in dry air for the
day limiting rain chances. By Saturday another shortwave impulse
looks to move through the overall flow pushing with it another
frontal boundary which will have a bit more moisture behind it. NBM
was on the drier side this run but with the GFS and EURO showing
wetter runs this round, thinking the rain chances will extend
further south into the metro ATL area instead of just staying in far
north Georgia. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light though
at less than a quarter inch of rainfall. There still does remain
model split on whether the front stalls in central Georgia or
further south into Florida but with 40-60% chance for measurable
precip showing up on the EPS and GEFS elected to keep the PoPs in
that 20-30% range through Tuesday next week with diurnally driven t-
storms. Temperatures despite the frontal passages will range from 3-
8 degrees above normal before moderating to closer to normal into
mid week.


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR through TAF period. Some passing higher cloud cover expected
through afternoon. Some -SHRA noted just to the west of metro TAF
sites at TAF issuance - not expecting impacts, but can`t fully
rule out not seeing a few drops approach western VC over next 2 to
3 hours. No other vsby/cig/wx impacts expected. Winds are on east
side at 4-8 kts and will continue to get lighter into evening,
going near calm at some sites overnight. Tomorrow afternoon winds
will switch to west side at 3-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&
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