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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon for north
Georgia and around and just south of the metro. Can`t rule
out a strong to marginally severe storm across far north
Georgia this evening.

- Getting even warmer. Maybe downright hot. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s today, 90s on Friday.

Forecast:

Potent upper level low is positioned just to the north the Great
Lakes this afternoon within a broad trough over the southeast. Axis
of the broader system is nearly vertically aligned with the CWA and
driving a frontal boundary down into portions of eastern KY and
central and eastern TN where it will likely stall. Numerous storms
have developed along this boundary, though they become a bit more
sparse and weaker with southward extent. This isn`t surprising -
despite maintaining MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg, shear drops
substantially from northern TN into southern TN. So far any severe
weather has been mainly confined from around Knoxville to area
north. Still, despite the lack of shear, will still need to monitor
these storms as a few may be able to progress into far northern
Georgia near the border. Can`t rule out either a storm being able to
remain marginally severe, or storms gaining a bit of linear
organization and pushing into north Georgia before losing the
daytime heating. Models have trended away from the latter solution,
however. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) remains in effect for
our TN/NC border counties to account for the potential risk, with
primary risk being wind damage.

Otherwise, moisture return continues across the rest of the CWA with
surface dewpoints well into the 60s. Temperatures have risen well
into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few 90s creeping
into central Georgia. Prominent cu field has developed, and a few
have been able to glaciate and then take off into very brief
convective showers where some weak moisture convergence is
happening. These go up and come down within minutes in many cases,
as the upper level environment just isn`t conducive to maintaining
these. These will continue to be possible up until sundown.

Tonight, should see things start to clear out quickly and PoPs
quickly fade to near zero as a result. Temperatures will be warmer
than previous nights thanks to the increased moisture, staying in
the upper 60s to near 70. Can`t rule out seeing some very patchy fog
develop in some locations, especially where rain does occur, but not
expecting this to be widespread at the moment. Tomorrow looks to be
mostly dry but very warm across the CWA. For what feels like the
first time in a while, we will see the upper level flow become more
SWesterly over the area as a secondary vortmax within the broader
trough rotates quickly through it and the entire trough lifts a bit
to the north. Highs tomorrow should go into the 90s across nearly
all of the CWA, which may be the first 90 degree temps in a few
weeks in some locations. Summer lovers rejoice, but fall lovers,
don`t panic just yet, and be sure to keep reading below for next
week.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening across
north Georgia before drying out through the early next week.

- Above normal temps Saturday before cold front brings
temperatures closer to average through next week.

Discussion:

Upper level pattern of broad troughing over the eastern 2/3rd of the
CONUS continues into the beginning of the long term. A shortwave
impulse brings with it a cold front into the area for Saturday
afternoon into evening with enough moisture to support shower and
thunderstorm potential over the northern portions of the area. The
upper level trough as a whole also shifts eastward which in turn
brings some level of upper level divergence into the area. CAMs are
beginning to come in and are indicating some level of linear
development with these storms as it pushes through which matches up
with the projected low to moderate shear values and CAPE values from
2500-3000 J/kg. One limiting factor will be how far removed the low
will be at this point and thus the potential for the front to lose
steam into the evening before pushing southward overnight when there
is that lack of daytime heating. Will definitely be keeping an eye
on this.

Into the remainder of the long term, the front looks to stall out
over Florida which in turn limits our rain chances through mid week
with rain chances limited to central Georgia. When it comes to
temperatures, the front pushing through is expected to bring the
temps down into the low to mid 80s which is closer to average.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR through TAF period. SCT to BKN VFR cu field will be in place
through afternoon. There is a low chance of seeing a convection
across the metro TAF sites this afternoon, but chances of seeing
direct impacts are low enough to not warrant PROB30 mention at
this time. These should come to an end by 00Z. Winds are SW 4-8
kts this afternoon, and will go very light to near calm at many
sites tonight. No vsby/cig impacts expected overnight. Tomorrow
winds will again be 4-8 kts from SW. Expect another afternoon cu
field to develop.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium afternoon convection, high all others.

Lusk

&&
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