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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Cool, cloudy and rainy weather will continue through the weekend.

- Though a limited risk exists for both, widespread severe
weather and or flooding are not anticipated this weekend.

Weather Pattern through Sunday:

A large upper level low will remain centered over Louisiana this
weekend. Southerly flow east of the upper low will push a continuous
stream of Gulf moisture into Georgia, with precipitable water values
fluctuating between 1.2 and 1.8 inches. Also embedded within the
southerly flow will be several weak shortwaves that should
provide lift for enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms activity. The
first of these impulses is moving through Georgia this morning. A
second wave should arrive this afternoon, then a third is
expected Sunday. All in all the weekend looks like it will be
cloudy with multiple rounds of rainfall.

Temperatures over the weekend will be strongly influenced by an
area of high pressure to our north. The winds around the high
will favor wedging in the lee of the Appalachians, leading to
eastelry winds that will push drier and cooler air into Georgia.
Rain falling into this layer should produce additional evaporative
cooling. Thus afternoon high temperatures should be 9 to 14
degrees below seasonal averages today. This will translate into
widespread 60 degree temperatures in north Georgia. The cool
conditions should remain in place on Sunday, though a couple of
degrees of warming may lead to highs in the upper 60s and lower
70s. Due to the cloud cover limiting radiational cooling
overnight, the diurnal range in temperatures will be small, and
overnight lows may actually be a couple of degrees warmer than
average.

Expected Rainfall & Flooding Concerns:

Widespread rainfall totals in the 1 to 2 inch range and isolated
amounts over 3 inches are expected along and south of Interstate 20
by the end of the weekend. Over the mountains of north Georgia rain
totals near an inch are expected. While these amounts may be
sufficient to hinder many weekend plans, they shouldn`t lead to
significant flooding concerns. Local soil conditions are neutral
to slightly on the drier side (especially in central Georgia), and
this has 3 hour flash flood guidance values hovering between 2.5
and 5.0 inches. We would need multiple rounds of thunderstorm
activity in a short period of time or significant training to
approach these values. Neither of which is likely given the strong
southerly flow that should keep any storms moving. Ultimately
what this weekends rain may due is prime the region for an
increased river flooding risk early in the workweek as several
additional rounds of rain move into the region Monday and Tuesday.

The Severe Weather Threat this Weekend:

The overall risk for severe weather through Sunday afternoon looks
like it is fairly low due to limited lapse rates and surface
instability. Depending on how precipitation pans out this morning
and how much instability creeps into central Georgia from the
south this afternoon, there could be a couple of stronger storms
in central Georgia this afternoon or evening. Because mid level
lapse rates look marginal (~6.5 C/km) in the CAM guidance, the
primary hazard with any storms should be strong winds due to
precipitation loading. Even this potential may be limited by a
stable boundary layer induced by the wedge. A similar situation
may develop Sunday afternoon and evening.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather through the start of
the work week.

- Isolated river flooding concerns may develop through the
middle of next week.

By the start of the extended forecast the stacked low over the
ArkLaTex region still remains fairly stagnant. It begins to move
slowly NE Monday morning becoming positioned over western TN by
daybreak Tues. Strong mid-level S to SW flow will still be present
across the SERN U.S. ahead of the low, bringing gulf moisture across
GA. This will lead to multiple days of intermittent rainfall, cloudy
skies, and cooler than normal temperatures. We should see some
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches between Sunday and Tuesday. When
added to the precip amounts in the short term we should see a 5 day
total in the 3 to 5 inch range. In general, the higher totals will
be favored over central and east-central Georgia, with the lower end
amounts across northern Georgia. Thunderstorms will be possible
throughout this period, but the overall severe threat is still low
on any given day. With repeated rounds of rainfall, and the
potential for localized heavy rainfall where any thunderstorms move
through, we could see some flash flooding. This is noted by areas of
central Georgia, including Macon, being under a Slight Risk (Level 2
of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by WPC. Currently the biggest threat
does appear to be mainly some river flooding especially along the
Flint, Ocmulgee, Oconee, Altamaha, and Ogeechee. By late Wednesday,
the low is expected to be moving up across the Mid-Atlantic, with a
much drier and warmer airmass setting up over Georgia for the rest
of the work week.

Overall, temperatures through early next week will be cooler than
normal, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s, and overnight
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. A notable warming trend will take
place by the end of the week, with highs reaching the 80s Thursday
to near 90 by Friday.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Rain showers and occasional thunderstorm activity will continue
in north and central Georgia through 12Z Sunday. Thunderstorm
coverage should be highest in central Georgia between 18Z today
and 00Z Sunday. Thunderstorm could affect any of the TAF sites
today for brief periods. Ceilings will gradually degrade, with
widespread IFR/MVFR conditions (ceilings 500-1500 ft AGL) expected
between 18Z today and 12Z Sunday. Winds will be from the east
(060-120 degrees) today, with peak gust near 20 kt between 12Z
today and 00Z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence in thunderstorms at ATL today is moderate, confidence
in the timing of any storms is very low.
Forecast confidence in lower ceilings (1000 ft AGL or less) is
moderate after 15Z today.
Forecast confidence in easterly winds all day is high.

Albright

&&
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