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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area
this afternoon and tonight, primarily in central Georgia.

- Cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions are expected on Saturday.

As the period begins, an elongated upper trough is extending from
the eastern Great Lakes into southeast Texas, keeping moist
southwesterly flow in place over the region. High temperatures this
afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 70s to low 80s in
north Georgia and mid to upper 80s in central Georgia. Diurnal
heating this afternoon will promote the development of isolated
thunderstorms after about 3 PM this afternoon and into the evening.
A weak shortwave traversing the SW flow is expected to advance
through the forecast area in the afternoon and evening. The
shortwave will overrun a residual boundary from early morning storms
over east-central Georgia, which will provide more lift and thus
locally higher PoPs in this area. Here, SBCAPE values between 1000-
1500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear of 25-30 kts are expected in the
afternoon, with SPC has maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. The primary threat with any strong to severe
storms that develop will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1
inch in diameter.

By late tonight into Saturday morning, the upper level flow pattern
is expected to decouple, with the northern half of the trough moving
away to the northeast and the southern half developing into a cutoff
low near the northwest Gulf Coast. A broad ridge will meanwhile
develop in the northern stream, which will keep the cutoff low in
place to the west of Georgia through the remainder of the short term
period and into early next week. At the surface, an associated slow-
moving low pressure system will result in continued dreary
conditions during the weekend and into the early parts of next week.
Surface high pressure will meanwhile move eastward towards the Mid-
Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. A CAD wedge and easterly low-
level flow will then develop along the lee side of the Appalachians
and overspread north Georgia on Friday. Low temperatures on Saturday
morning will be in the 50s in the northern half of the forecast area
and in the low 60s in the southern half. Underneath the wedge and
overcast skies, highs should struggle to get out of the 60s across
the majority of the area, with only some low to mid 70s in the far
southern tier. These highs are expected to be about 8-14 degrees
below daily averages.

Weak disturbances will continue to rotate around the low pressure
system as it slowly drifts to the east. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will increase from south to north starting tonight and
continue into the daytime on Saturday. Rain totals near an inch are
possible in areas roughly south of I-20 through Saturday night where
deeper moisture will remain present. A deep layer of dry air and a
greater distance from the favorable southerly flow ahead of the
upper low will serve to limit rainfall amounts to the north of I-20.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather through the start of
the work week.

- Isolated river flooding concerns may develop by Wednesday.

The stacked low over the ArkLaTex region will remain stagnant on
Sunday, before very slowly drifting northeastward across the
Southeast US from Monday through Wednesday. Strong mid-level
south-southwest flow will be positioned over Georgia ahead of the
low, bringing copious amounts of moisture up from the Gulf. This
will lead to multiple days of intermittent rainfall, cloudy
skies, and cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches are expected between Sunday and Tuesday, with
reasonable worst case amounts (1 in 10 chance) of 4 to 6 inches
in the hardest hit areas. In general, the higher totals will be
favored over central and east-central Georgia, with the lower end
amounts across northern Georgia. Thunderstorms will be possible
throughout this period, but the overall severe threat is low on
any given day. With repeated rounds of rainfall, and the
potential for localized heavy rainfall where any thunderstorms
move through, urban flash flooding may become a concern. This is
noted by areas of central Georgia, including Macon, being under a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by WPC. River
flooding may also become a concern by the middle of the week as
all the rainfall starts to make its way through the waterways. By
late Wednesday, the low is expected to be moving up across the
Mid-Atlantic, with a much drier and warmer airmass setting up
over Georgia for the rest of the work week.

Overall, temperatures through early next week will be cooler than
normal, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s, and overnight
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. A notable warming trend will
take place from mid to late next week, with highs reaching the
low 80s Wednesday and upper 80s Thursday.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Conditions are expected to be primarily VFR through the afternoon
hours, with a scattered cu field between 035-050 underneath upper
level clouds. Isolated to scattered TSRA is largely expected to
remain south of all TAF sites this afternoon, though a stray storm
could move as far north as MCN/CSG, though odds are low. Winds
will be NW at 4-8 kts this afternoon and evening, shifting to E/NE
in the early morning hours on Saturday. These E/NE winds will
increase to 10-12 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts after 12Z on
Saturday. More widespread precipitation and lower clouds will
begin to advance northward overnight into Saturday. MVFR ceilings
and prevailing -SHRA are anticipated to arrive at ATL by 12Z,
with IFR and moderate SHRA becoming possible in the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all aspects of the forecast through 00Z this
evening.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

&&
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