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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible (15-40%
chances) across portions of north Georgia today. An isolated
strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out across
far north Georgia.

- Afternoon highs will continue to trend above seasonal norms,
topping out in the mid-80s to lower-90s.

Discussion:

A shortwave disturbance traversing the broader northwesterly flow at
the mid-levels will sweep across the Tennessee River Valley today,
providing a source of lift/a focus for subsequent convective
development throughout the day. Surface winds will continue to veer
to the southwest, allowing for a continued rebound in moisture with
fetch off of the Gulf. Isolated to scattered light showers (15-30%
chances) are possible through the morning today -- generally along
the GA/TN border and in portions of northeast Georgia -- with
chances for thunderstorms increasing with onset of diurnal heating.
Unlike in previous days, HiRes guidance shows a modest signal that
some activity may develop and extend into the Atlanta Metro and
points further south by mid-afternoon. Also unlike previous days, a
sliver of a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk for severe weather has
been analyzed across our far northern tier of counties, primarily
along the TN/GA border. MUCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg will
persist into the afternoon, overlapping with weakly enhanced --
but non-trivial -- wind shear (potentially up to 25-30kts). Any
storms that take advantage of this low-end parameter space will be
able to produce isolated strong to potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some hail. However, coverage will be patchy at
best, and despite bolstered rain chances as compared to the past
several days, most locations are likely to remain dry.

To round out the work week on Friday, flow aloft becomes tranquil
and quasi-zonal, coupled with high pressure briefly nosing onshore
at the surface. The combined effects of the aforementioned features
will support mostly clear and dry conditions for north and central
Georgia, with NBM PoPs currently <10% areawide.

Temperatures will continue to warm with rebounding moisture, topping
out in the 80s to lower 90s today and in the 90s tomorrow for all
but northeast Georgia. Expect lows to be several degrees warmer,
in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Key Messages:

- A slight uptick in rain chances this weekend, then a slight
chance for showers and storms across parts of central Georgia
early to middle of next week.

- A warm Saturday, then cooler early to middle of next week.

Discussion:

The main change from the previous couple of forecast packages is
increased PoPs along and north of I-85 on Saturday. Have capped PoPs
at 40% but thinking that isolated to scattered showers and storms
are likely across this area as ensemble guidance depicts moisture
return along and ahead of a cold front advancing southward across
the TN River Valley. SREF-progged mean PWAT is ~1.6" -- around the
75th percentile for this time of year -- which increases confidence
in the uptick in PoPs. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast
to reach the lower 90s to mid-90s across much of the CWA on
Saturday. As the front treks southward on Sunday, highs are forecast
in the upper 70s to mid-80s roughly along and north of I-85. As an
aside, would not be surprised to see 40% PoPs or lower introduced on
Sunday in subsequent forecast packages as the front pushes through.

Uncertainty remains regarding how far south the front pushes before
steering flow becomes parallel to it. The parent low pressure system
-- well to the north over east-central Canada -- is progged
to shift northeastward Saturday through Sunday. Cyclonically-curved
mid-/upper-level flow will remain over much of the central and
eastern CONUS through midweek. The latest NBM guidance confines PoPs
(which are only 25% at most) to our southernmost counties of central
Georgia, suggesting that at least some of the NBM members models are
pushing the front south of the CWA and focusing moisture to the
south as well. As far as temperatures go, highs will generally be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

There are no strong signals in the guidance for severe weather this
weekend with bulk shear and instability lacking. It is possible that
a storm or two could become strong with gusty winds and frequent
lightning where frontal forcing is maximized and any disturbances
aloft provide some localized "oomph".

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR through TAF period. SCT to BKN VFR cu field will be in place
through afternoon. There is a low chance of seeing a convection
across the metro TAF sites this afternoon, but chances of seeing
direct impacts are low enough to not warrant PROB30 mention at
this time. These should come to an end by 00Z. Winds are SW 4-8
kts this afternoon, and will go very light to near calm at many
sites tonight. No vsby/cig impacts expected overnight. Tomorrow
winds will again be 4-8 kts from SW. Expect another afternoon cu
field to develop.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium afternoon convection, high all others.

Lusk

&&
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