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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms in west Georgia could produce
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

- Heat index values over 100 remain likely through the weekend.

Fairly rinse and repeat to the forecast. Isolated thunderstorms are
once again expected this afternoon. Coverage continues to decrease
each afternoon as high pressure over the Gulf Coast develops. PWATs
remain near the 90th percentile. Expect any thunderstorms that
develops to be waterloaded with rainrates potentially 2-3" per hour.
A strong storm cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty
winds, though the greatest chance for this if further north.

Temperatures ramp up quickly this weekend with highs today in the
mid 90s. Dewpoints in and around 70 will lead to prolonged heat
index values of 100-105 and brief values in excess of 105. A heat
advisory is in effect for Sunday afternoon, though conditions will
be borderline. A heat advisory is also likely for Monday.
Thunderstorms coverage will be key to exactly how hot things get,
with greater coverage than expected leading to slightly cooler
conditions. Be prepared for the heat and have a plan to stay cool if
you plan to be in the sun for any extended amount of time.


SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected each afternoon and
evening through the long term.

- Watching for tropical development in the Gulf.

- Keeping an eye on the potential for additional Heat Advisories
through the middle of the week, but some uncertainty.


Forecast:

I feel like a broken record writing these lately, but long term
forecast looks to keep rain and thunderstorm chances relatively
high. Aloft, clear subtropical ridge is in place over the CWA per 2
PVU surface through end of week. A weak disturbance will slide
underneath this ridge from the east, moving from the Atlantic across
Florida and into Gulf by Tuesday into Wednesday, with the GFS
ensembles a bit faster than the Euro counterpart. Both model
ensembles have several members which develop a weak low in the Gulf
with enough strength to be worth monitoring for potential tropical
development. Waters in the area are plenty warm, and these
disturbances near the shoreline are a common pathway for development
in July. NHC has a 20% chance of development with this system.
Regardless of tropical development, weak disturbance will enhance
both moisture and lift across the CWA as it progresses towards
the west. Currently expecting widespread diurnally driven PoPs
each day through the end of the week. Biggest source of
uncertainty may be how previous days worth of convection
contaminates upper atmosphere, but surface heating and moisture
advection will likely even overcome a mostly moist adiabatic
profile.

Other thing to watch will be the heat. With several days worth of
triple digit heat indices to proceed it, the middle of the week -
could- see the highest ones thus far, with forecast heat indices
exceeding 105 across a good chunk of eastern central Georgia. The -
could- is due to uncertainty around the afternoon highs thanks to
what is expected to be widespread diurnal convection and cloud
cover. If these storms get going pretty early in the afternoon, we
may not achieve these heat indices. Still, it`s going to be quite
hot and quite muggy, in the air you can wear sort of way, so even if
forecast heat indices come down with increased rain confidence,
still plan to take it easy outdoors.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR through period. Winds W at 5 to 10 kts during day becoming
light and variable overnight. Prob30 for thunderstorms near metro
ATL and west, though chances likely closer to 15 - 20%. FEW to SCT
low cigs psbl this morning near MCN and SE.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

SM

&&
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