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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

-The moving cold front will keep scattered thunderstorm chances
across East and Central GA today.

-Isolated storm chances mainly south of Macon Thursday afternoon

-Warm temperatures to continue though less muggy over North GA

A dreary start for your Wednesday -- clouds and patchy fog blanket
portions of North and Central GA this morning. A cold front will
continue to move across the state over the course of the morning
arriving in Central GA by the afternoon. Thus, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of east and
central GA (ahead of the boundary) where the airmass remains more
moist and fairly unstable. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning may accompany storms this afternoon -- the
latter possible with any storm that forms. An isolated shower or
storm cannot be ruled out for locales as far north as the ATL
metro given lingering moisture and daytime heating. Though this
will largely depend on where the front makes it by the time the
afternoon rolls around. Thinking some sprinkles or a stray shower
are more likely further north this morning rather than later this
afternoon. Still some uncertainties with exactly how far the front
makes it today, thus isolated thunderstorm chances will still be
possible in south- central GA-- namely areas south of Macon on
Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure will begin to build and
drier air filtering into the area on Thursday resulting in drier
conditions for most of the forecast area.

Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to climb into the mid to
upper 80s -- perhaps a little cooler in the northeast mountains.
While not a complete relief from the warm temperatures, conditions
are likely to be less muggy across North GA as drier air begins to
filter in behind the front later today. Tomorrow (Thursday)
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 80s to lower 90s (80s
in the northeast mountains).

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Low rain chances and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s on
Friday and Saturday. Heat indices could reach as high as the upper
90s.

- Rain chances will begin to increase on Sunday and early next
week, but uncertainty remains in forecast during this time.

An amplified upper level pattern will be in place over the CONUS as
the long term period begins, with a longwave trough along the
Atlantic coast and a ridge extending over the Great Plains. The
deepening of the trough will allow it to push the surface frontal
boundary further through south Georgia and into the northern
Gulf. Relatively drier air on the back side of the front will have
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s in all but east-central Georgia
on Friday as surface high pressure under the ridge slides over
the Appalachians. In addition to the drier air at the surface,
warmer air building in at the mid-levels should serve to limit
thunderstorm chances to 10 percent or less across north Georgia on
Friday and Saturday. Diurnally-driven convection will still be
likely in portions of central Georgia on Friday and Saturday, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms forecast mainly south of a
line from Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro. Considering the
building ridge and lower cloud cover given the limited rain
chances, high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will climb back
into the low to mid 90s across the majority of the forecast area,
with 80s remaining in the far northeastern mountains. Heat index
values will be slightly higher, rising into the mid to upper 90s
during the afternoons.

Uncertainty remains in the forecast on Sunday and the early parts of
next week, with divergence in model solutions on how it handles the
ridge moving over the eastern CONUS and a tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) low to the south of the forecast area.
The majority of solutions still indicating a fairly strong ridge
over the eastern CONUS while the low retrograding westward along
the Gulf Coast. However, it is also possible that the ridge could
break down over the southeast, with the low being northward into
Georgia. Chances for diurnal thunderstorms begin to increase once
again on Sunday (20-30 percent) and Monday (30-40 percent) to
account for the possibility of the latter scenario, though
confidence is lower given the uncertainty and spread in the
guidance. Also, as the weakening front sinks southward into the
Gulf this weekend, it is possible that a surface low could develop
in the baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the front late Saturday
or Sunday, which could then tap into the warm sea surface
temperatures, intensify, and gain tropical characteristics. The
NHC has identified a 40 percent chance of tropical development
over the next 7 days in an area including the far northeast Gulf,
Florida Peninsula, and southern Atlantic coast, though there
remains little run to run consistency on actual development and
evolution. The development of a tropical system would allow for
more moisture return and increase PoPs on the north side of the
system in the early parts of next week and will need to be
monitored.


King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A cold front continues to move across North GA this morning. IFR
cigs and patchy fog still remain possible after 08z at most sites
with improvements by around 14z. Otherwise, FEW to SCT cu and high
cirrus will persist, followed by high cirrus and SKC once the
FROPA occurs at each site. Winds will gradually shift to the NW
following FROPA. Isolated shra/tsra possible at KATL/KAHN though
too low to mention in TAF. Better chance will be at CSG/MCN though
depends on how far front progresses.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on extent of IFR cigs
High confidence on remaining elements

07

&&
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