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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Light rain this morning could transition to a wintry mix over
the higher northeast Georgia elevations through daybreak.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for central Georgia from
3 AM to 12 PM on Sunday. Most locations in the advisory are
forecast to see accumulations of 0.25-0.5" with isolated 1"
totals.

- Stay tuned to forecast updates over the next 24-36 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

The short term forecast period will focus on two rounds of active
weather; one this morning and over the course of the day and another
tonight and into Sunday. They are detailed below:

Today:

As the morning begins, a low pressure system centered over the north-
central Great Lakes is extending a cold front through the Ohio
Valley region and southward towards the northwest Georgia border.
Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave will rotate around the southwest
side of the low, through the Midwest and towards the middle
Mississippi RIver Valley region. The movement of this shortwave will
give the frontal boundary some additional push from behind and help
it continue advancing south and east this morning. Modest moisture
return in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front has been
sufficient for dewpoints to climb into the mid 30s to low 40s and
precipitable water values to increase to between 0.6-0.8 inches. A
band of showers is ongoing in far north Georgia ahead of the front,
though these showers will weaken and become more scattered over the
course of the day as forcing ahead of the front weakens. QPF
associated with this system will be fairly light, between 0.25-0.5
inch in the far northern tier, between 0.1-0.25 inch elsewhere to
the north of I-85, and fairly negligible to the south.

In the higher elevations of far north Georgia, mainly above 2000 ft,
precipitation is expected to transition to a light rain/snow mix as
temperatures drop to the mid 30s to near freezing. These showers
could briefly transition to all snow in the coldest hours of the
morning. The most likely window over which wintry precipitation will
occur is between 4 AM and 8 AM this morning, after which point the
axis of precipitation will exit the mountains to the south. Snow
accumulations at these higher elevations are forecast to range from
a trace to 0.5 inch. A look at the latest NBM probabilistic guidance
indicates a 30-50% chance of snowfall totals greater than 0.1 inch
above 2000 ft, and a 10-30% chance of snowfall totals greater than
0.5 inches at the highest peaks. Snowfall totals of greater than 0.5
inch appear to be unlikely aside from isolated locations. This snow
could lead to minor travel difficulties in the mountains. However,
spotty areas of black ice are also possible where standing water is
able to freeze, mainly on less-traveled secondary roads. A Special
Weather Statement is in effect for Murray, Gilmer, Fannin, Dawson,
Union, Lumpkin, White, and Towns counties until 8 AM.

By the late morning, precipitation should transition to all rain as
the front and diminishing showers move into central Georgia. Highs
on Saturday will largely be in the mid to upper 40s in the
mountains, low to mid 50s elsewhere in north Georgia, and upper 50s
to low 60s in central Georgia.

Tonight and Sunday:

The period overnight through Sunday morning is continuing to shape
up to be the more widespread and impactful of these two rounds.

By tonight, mid-level troughing will continue to build southward
into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf. For the sensible
weather in north and central Georgia, this strong positively-tilted
trough will have two effects. First, it will advance a second cold
front southward from the lower Midwest into north Georgia. Second,
it will develop a weak surface low just off the central Gulf coast,
which will spread moisture northward towards central Georgia. Thus,
major challenge over this forecast period is twofold: to determine
the northward extent of precipitation on the north side of the low
and how quickly the cold front will advance southward through the
forecast area. The overlap between precipitation to the north of the
low and near to below freezing temperatures behind the front will
determine the area and time that wintry precipitation will occur.

The latest model guidance continues to indicate the onset of rain
for central and southwest Georgia shortly before midnight. This rain
will then spread north and east through early Sunday. Then, in the
early morning hours on Sunday, between 3 AM and 5 AM, models show
temperatures dropping below freezing to the south of the Atlanta
metro area hinting at the passage of the front. A transition to a
wintry mix or wet snow can then be expected on the northern side of
the precipitation shield where the moisture encounters the cold air
behind the front. Over the next several hours on Sunday morning,
temperatures in the low to mid 30s will spread south, with the
transition from rain to a wintry mix or wet snow working its way
southward through the rain shield. The area of light snow/mix will
hold until around noon on Sunday, at which point the surface low
will meander eastward with the remaining precipitation to the north
exiting the forecast area to the east.

The focus for snow continues to be to the south of the I-85
corridor. Latest ensemble guidance continues the trend of favoring
central and portions of east Georgia, though it is worth mentioning
that some hi-res solutions have trended to the north and west,
indicating a trace of snow as far north as the south Atlanta metro
to Athens. The axis of heaviest snow is currently forecast south and
east of a rough line from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. Here, snow
accumulations are forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.5 inch, though it
will also be possible for isolated locations to see as much as 1
inch. Probabilistic guidance has trended lower then the previous
forecast, with the NBM 90th percentile (reasonable worst-case) now
showing 1.5-2 inch in areas of central Georgia to the south and east
of Macon. Thus, snowfall amounts exceeding 2 inches exceeding 2
inches appear to be unlikely at this time. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for portions of central Georgia and will be in
effect from 3 AM until 12 PM on Sunday.

All that said, there are a lot of moving parts. Ample uncertainty
remains with respect to snow amounts and potential footprint of snow
on Sunday morning, which will need to be monitored in ensuing
forecast updates. It remains possible that warm, southerly flow
ahead of the system could keep portions of east and central Georgia
too warm for snow. On the other hand, it is also possible that
latent cooling of snow falling through a near surface dry layer
could cause reinforcing feedback and a more intense snowfall in some
locations. Furthermore, the available moisture and northward extend
of precipitation will depend on the position, strength, and
evolution of the surface low, which itself will depend on the
strength of the trough and how far south it is able to dig. Finally,
changes in the movement of the cold front could make the difference
between a location seeing snow, or all rain before precip comes to
an end. All of the above could necessitate changes to the existing
Winter Weather Advisory, so stay tuned for forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

The long term periods begin on the heels of the exiting frontal
system from the short term. Temps Monday morning will dip down into
the 20s with some teens in the north GA mountains. Any precipitation
that did not have time to dry off the roadways from Sundays frontal
system will freeze overnight causing black ice and dangerous driving
conditions Monday morning. Temperature do rebound Monday with highs
in the 40s and 50s across the area. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail Monday through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the
region and dominates the weather pattern. Tuesday and Wednesday will
bear watching as afternoon relative humidity values are expected to
tank into the 15% to 25% range. With winds in the 5-10mph range each
day, conditions could be setting the stage for potential issuances
of Fire Danger Statements. If gustier conditions are realized either
day, Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings would not be out of
the question.

The next chance of precip we will see appears to be Thu. The models
are showing a wave developing along the TX/MX Gulf coast Wed, moving
NE knocking on Georgia`s western border right around daybreak Thu.
Right now it looks like it moves east across the state Thu as mostly
rain but some locations across the north GA mountains could see some
freezing/frozen precip Thu evening through daybreak Fri.

&&
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