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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1233 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect across the area this
morning. Temperatures in the teens and "feels-like"
temperatures in the single digits are possible.

- Temperatures gradually rebound by the middle of the upcoming
week, with rain chances holding off until Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Post frontal conditions have blasted in and will likely blast out
just as fast. SFC pressures have risen to 1030 and will continue to
climb through the morning today. Temperatures continue to fall with
20Fs across the area, though greater decreases are in store once
winds settle down. Temps this morning should settle into the teens
(potentially single digits in the valleys up north). With skies
clear and high pressure temps should warm quickly through the
afternoon, bringing highs back to around 40F.

Dry conditions mean temps will fall once again tonight into Tuesday
morning with lows back into the 20s, however the general trend will
be upwards. No precipitation is expected through the short term
outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Long term picks up Tuesday night where a warming trend will begin.
Dry, cold airmass is still in place across the CWA but will have
been warmed and modified over the previous days as it continues to
slide to the east of the CWA. By Wednesday surface winds will flip
around to the southwest as a system pushes by to the north with a
weaker wave in the southern stream to the south. This will bring
some moisture into the area, though confidence is increasing of this
resulting in mostly just some cloud cover across the CWA. Afternoon
temps will rise into the 50s and 60s.

By Thursday, pretty strong consensus across the ensembles for trough
to dig into the eastern CONUS and deepen. Surface low will develop
across the Great Lakes and push eastward, but stout front develops
as strong surface high develops to the west over the Great Plains
and slides south and east within the AVA on the backside of the
trough. Looking across the ensembles, differences remain on the
availability of moisture within the system. K-mean clustering of 500
mb heights shows this isn`t driven by model core, but small details
in the strength and position of the wave as it digs into the area.
Rain chances seem likely at this point, but the question of just how
much still remains. Current forecast amounts are trending up a
touch, but still remain a modest quarter to half an inch in most
places. Still monitoring this for storm potential, though the timing
of the system into the area further into the evening or overnight
may prevent better instability. High temps on Thursday will be the
warmest of the week as this system draws in moist air ahead of it,
with the possibility of seeing some December 70s in central Georgia.

Front that moves in after this doesn`t look to be connected to a
major Arctic airmass at this time, so temps cool but back closer to
average for this time of year, in the 50s to low 60s. Another system
may bring another chance at rain Sunday, though uncertainty around
this system is very high. After this, next week does look warm, with
ensembles showing strong signal for ridge to build over the eastern
US.

&&
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