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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Significant rainfall is not anticipated in the region through
the end of next week.

- An Arctic front will produce colder temperatures Sunday and
Monday, then a rapid warm up will occur during the second half
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Benign Weather Today & Friday:

A post frontal airmass will be in place across Georgia today.
High temperatures will be around 10 degree cooler than yesterday
due to CAA induced by northwest winds. A few gusts near 20 mph
should occur this afternoon, but weaker flow (compared yesterday)
in the 925 to 850 mb layer should limit the wind gust potential
today.

After a cool start Friday morning (morning lows in the lower 30s),
temperatures should rebound quickly. Pressure gradients between a
surface low in the Tennessee Valley and surface high over Florida
will produce modest southwest winds (WAA). This will push
temperatures into the lower 60s across most of north and central
Georgia by Friday afternoon. No precipitation or hazardous weather
are expected Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

As the long term period begins on Friday night, broad troughing will
remain in place across southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS.
Northwesterly upper level flow will be in place across the majority
of the CONUS behind this trough. Meanwhile, a closed mid-level low
will drop from central Canada towards the Great Lakes region, with a
surface low spinning up underneath by Saturday morning. A second
weak disturbance traversing the northwesterly flow and moving
through the Tennessee Valley will only bring minimal forcing to
north Georgia and is not anticipated to bring anything more than a
light, isolated shower or two to the area overnight into Saturday.
PoPs through Saturday will be about 5-10% across the area. Amid
gradual advection of warm and moist air ongoing, and both low and
high temperatures on Saturday are forecast to range from about 2-5
degrees above daily normals. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the
mid to upper 30s in north Georgia (and low 30s in the mountains) and
low 40s in central Georgia. High temperatures will range from the
mid 50s in the far northern tier to the upper 60s in east-central
Georgia on Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night into Sunday, the aforementioned surface low will
swing out of the Great Lakes region and towards Maine, at which
point a cold front will advance through the Midwest and continue
southward towards the forecast area. With model guidance coming into
better agreement on the timing of the front`s progression, isolated
to scattered showers are forecast to spread into northwest Georgia
on Saturday night. As the front advances southward, scattered
showers (with PoPs between 25-45%) will overspread much of the
forecast area after midnight and through the early morning hours on
Sunday. Light precipitation trailing behind the front and below
freezing temperatures could combine to produce a light wintry mix in
the far northeastern mountains before sunrise, but if this occurs at
all, it will be brief with no significant accumulations. Rain
chances are then forecast to diminish with the front weakening as it
moves south and east into central Georgia. Rainfall amounts ahead of
the front appear to be negligible - at most about 0.10 inch near the
I-85 corridor.

There is the potential for significantly colder air to set up behind
the front late Sunday into early next week. The extent of how much
temperatures will drop will depend on the movement of the high`s
center and the proximity of north/central Georgia to the core of the
coldest air. Latest guidance continues to trend towards better
agreement on a southeastward detour of the high`s center, through
the Ohio Valley and across Georgia on Monday, then near the SOuth
Carolina coast early Tuesday. This would favor a greater drop in
temperatures by by early Monday morning. Guidance also continues to
indicate the weakening of the high as it moves southeast, which
would serve to moderate the airmass as it sets up over the region.
With more run to run consistency in handling this Arctic high,
confidence is increasing on temperatures early next week. At this
time, lows on Monday are forecast to be mainly in the low 20s, with
even some upper teens to the north of the I-85 corridor, though the
evolution and track of the Arctic high will still need to be
monitored.

Monday will be brisk throughout, with highs being limited to the low
to mid 40s across the area. With the surface high continuing to
weaken and move southeast into the Atlantic, the airmass will begin
to moderate on Tuesday. While still well below normal, lows on
Tuesday are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s and highs will rise
into the upper 40s to mid 50s in the afternoon. The influence of the
high will furthermore inhibit rain chances early next week until at
least Wednesday, when it will be well offshore and the next
disturbance approaches the region.

&&
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