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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Key Message:

-Dry conditions with less than 20% chance for rain over southeast
central GA.

-Dry air and cooler temperatures leading to a pleasant short
term.

Discussion:

The front has officially pushed south of the area with a cu field
over southeast Georgia depicting where it is. This does clip our
four southeastern most counties which is in line with where we
have PoPs at ~15-20% through this evening. Not expecting much in
the way of impactful weather but isolated storms could clip those
counties with dewpoints showing up in the low to mid 70s and
temps near 90. Lightning and gusty winds would be the main threat
for any of these isolated storms into the evening. Expecting a
similar pattern tomorrow with mainly dry conditions across much of
the area with the cold front truly out of north and central
Georgia. Winds could become gusty as early as overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning with gusts up to 20mph possible. The main
other story will be cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 70s
(mountains) to low 80s across the area with lows int the upper 50s
to low 60s. We will not be approaching any temperature records
but overall temps will be ~3-5 degrees below normal. This along
with the lower dewpoints will really make for a pleasant start to
the week!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry weather with a low chance (<20%) of showers and storms
south of a line from Eastman, Dublin, and Swainsboro.

- Mild temperatures to start but gradually warming later in the
week.

Discussion:

No significant changes to the long term forecast with this latest
update. Ensembles continue to trend dry with mild but warming
temperatures from Tuesday through this next weekend. For more
detailed information regarding the synoptic set up please refer to
the previous discussion below....

The first couple days of the long term period won`t quite be fall-
like, but will offer a little taste of a cool-down. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to mid-80s. On Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, highs
will tick up into the mid-80s to upper 80s. Temps in the mountains
will be 5-10 degrees cooler.

While troughing will prevail in the mid/upper levels across the
Southeast, ensemble guidance depicts 850 mb ridging developing and
strengthening beneath over the course of the period. This will
increase subsidence and warming in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, reflected in the gradually increasing temperatures
through the week.

A subtle change in this forecast package is a reduction in PoPs
across the southern tier of the forecast area through Wednesday.
Will still message the possibility (~20% chance or lower) for
showers and storms south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro, but this may end up being too generous as PoPs in the
gridded forecast now barely clip Telfair, Wheeler, Montgomery, and
Emanuel Counties. Will continue to message near-zero severe weather
potential as the front that is currently pushing through the state
will have shifted well south of the forecast area and will not be
proximate enough to provide lift/convergence.

07/Martin

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Winds will shift to an east or northeast direction (030-090
degrees) between 02Z and 09Z Monday. Gusts in the 18 to 26 kt
range will be possible between 06Z and 22Z Monday (especially at
KATL). Ceilings in the 2500 to 4500 ft AGL range will increase in
coverage through 12Z Monday, then linger through 06Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the wind and ceiling forecasts.
High confidence in all other aspects of the forecast.

Albright

&&
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