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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry 4th of July for most, but some isolated storms possible in
the mountains of NE GA, east central GA, and the Columbus area
through the evening.

- Temps around 9 pm will be in the 70s in the mountains, lower 80s
elsewhere. Expect clear skies for most.

- Watching AL92 off the coast for tropical development in the next
48 hours.

Forecast:

4th of July is warm but dry for most so far, with the exception of a
rouge storm that has popped along the far north Georgia mountains.
Expectation is that this will remain the case through the evening
with the exception of southeast central Georgia and the Columbus
area, where an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out. As the
sun sets, any storms should quickly come to an end, and skies should
be clear for the nightly festivities. For smoke concerns, winds will
be from the E to ENE across the area tonight, but will be slowing
down as the nocturnal boundary layer develops. RHs should remain low
enough to prevent any kind of concerns around smoke fog or anything
like that. Temperatures around 9 pm will hover in the 70s in the
mountains and lower 80s across the rest of the CWA.

Main focus of the short term will be to keep an eye on the
development of AL92 off the coastline of Georgia. Broad surface low
with clear pressure trough is notable on the satellite presentation
of the low. Pulsing convection that is still located to the east of
the main circulation will need to become more aligned with the
center of the system before any continued development is likely -
however, with shear decreasing a bit over the system, this seems
likely in the near future. A tropical or subtropical storm is likely
to be named within the next 48 hours. This system should be spinning
off the coastline Saturday. Thanks to the system, drier surface air
should continue to pump into the CWA from the NE along the
Appalachians, and we will likely see subsidence aloft that in
combination with the surface dry air should keep convective chances
near zero in all but SE central Georgia and far south central
Georgia. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 90s.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Wet-dry dichotomy possible between southeast and northwest CWA
respectively through early next week.

- Temps climb mid next week back into the mid 90s. Apparent
temperatures may reach 105 or greater due to moisture.

- Diurnal thunderstorm pattern returns by mid next week.

Forecast:

Conditions through the extended period will be characterized by
fairly placid mid and upper level flow combined with uncertainty in
the movement/evolution of a tropical low and its moisture. Broad
upper level ridging typical of our warm summertime patterns will see
temperatures back in the mid 90s by mid week. At present, the NHC
does have an area highlighted off the GA/SC coast for a broad area
of low pressure (AL92) with a 70% chance of tropical development. At
present the vast majority of ensembles move the system into the
coast then to the northeast, however with the probability of PWATS
2.0" >90% within the low conditions will be juicy. Currently
expecting the main impacts for the area to be locally heavy rainfall
with a sharp cutoff on the western edge where drier inland air wraps
around the system. Confidence in the exact placement of this cutoff
is low due to the weak flow. Cities in our area most likely to see
thunderstorm activity will be those that see influence from the
diurnal seabreeze up to possibly Macon. Either way, the system will
likely be on its way out of the area by Tuesday where-in weak
troughing may bring us back to a diurnally driven thunderstorm cycle.

Temperatures will be warm to hot with highs in the mid 90s by mid
week. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will mean apparent
temperatures will also surge into the triple digits (100-105). Some
areas could reach closer to 105-110, though this is still a ways out
and subject to significant change given afternoon thunderstorm
potential.

SM

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR through TAF period. Afternoon cu already developing and will
remain until just after sunset. Otherwise, no other cig, vsby, or
weather impacts expected through period. Winds will be E to ENE
with some occasional moves to ESE through period. Strength will be
6-11 kts, going lighter overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&
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