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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
127 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
primarily along and south of the I-20/I-85 intersection this
morning and afternoon.

- Highs in the 80s today and mid-70s to mid-80s tomorrow remain
below average for late August.

Discussion:

Given a mild temperature forecast (highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s
both today and tomorrow), the primary concern over the holiday
weekend will be coverage and northward extent of showers and
thunderstorms. A swath of moisture traversing the southern edge of
the broader mid-level trough spanning much of ECONUS will continue
to work to erode our unseasonably dry airmass through tomorrow.
PWATs in north Georgia remained in the 0.8-1.3" range yesterday
(generally between the 10th and 25th percentiles for late August),
with a stout dry layer evident above 700mb on both the 12Z and 00Z
soundings. Conversely, low-level moisture has rebounded, with a more
saturated column between 850 and 700mb. Model guidance suggests
PWATs will return to 1" or greater areawide by mid-morning Sunday,
but the lingering dry layer may continue to prevent unencumbered
convective development for the northern half of the forecast area.
Best chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms will be focused
further south, fueled by the interaction of the aforementioned
moisture streaming in across the southern half of the forecast area
with a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Florida
panhandle/northern Gulf. Perhaps a few isolated passing showers for
the Metro.

Moving into Sunday, surface high pressure noses across New England
and the Mid-Atlantic, allowing for wedging (and characteristic U-
shaped isobars) to develop across north and north central Georgia.
Additional continental air filtering in should tamp precipitation
chances down further (20% or less) within the wedge airmass.
Otherwise, northeast Georgia -- orographically influenced -- and our
far southern/southeastern counties may see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue through next week.

- Mainly Isolated rain chances across the area except for
Wednesday as a system moves through the region.

Discussion:

The extended forecast begins with the frontal boundary over the FL
peninsula extending westward across the northern gulf and then up
into southern LA and eastern TX. There are a few waves moving east
along the frontal boundary out of the central and southern plains
but the best moisture and dynamics stay south of the area especially
with a wedge of high pressure building into NE GA beginning Sun
night. This wedge appears to become the dominate feature for north
and central GA keeping things stable through at least Wed/Thu of
next week. This pattern will also keep a decent amount of moisture
across the region keeping diurnally driven precip chances in the 20%
to 30% range across the CWA Mon and Tue. There is a short wave
developing over the northern plains Mon morning and it slowly moves
SE, pushing into NW GA Tue afternoon/evening. This wave settles in
over the state Wed bringing increased precip chances (40% to 50%
PoPs) but the wedge will still be in place so not expecting much in
the way of severe weather. This wave moves NE Thu morning as the
next frontal boundary moving SE out of the northern plains pushes
into NW GA Thu afternoon/evening. This frontal boundary is not
expected to have a lot of moisture associated with it, but it will
usher in a much drier and cooler airmass going into next weekend.

Temps will remain below seasonal norms with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to middle 80s. Night time low temps will drop down into
the upper 50s to middle 60s through day 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Isolated showers will occur in north and central Georgia through
03Z Sunday, impacts are unlikely (<15% chance) at the TAF sites.
Areas of patchy fog or low ceilings (200-2000) are possible in
central Georgia between 06Z and 14Z Sunday. Winds will continue to
be from the east (060-120 degrees) through 00Z, then variable
winds are anticipated between 00Z and 14Z Sunday. Northeast
(050-100 degrees) winds in the 4 to 12 kt range are expected
between 14Z Sunday and 00Z Monday.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&
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