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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
641 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

At a glance:

- Summer isn`t going down without a fight.

- Toasty Temps and scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.

Temperatures through the short term are expected to get back into
the 90s today and tomorrow across most of the CWA. Humid conditions
under SE winds will help drive the heat indices up towards triple
digits along and south of I-20. Thunderstorm activity will be
limited to northern Georgia out a head of the approaching cold
front which is really the only source of lift available in the
area.

TSRA conditions are expected to become more widespread mainly
from areas along and north of the I-85 corridor tomorrow as the
front approaches. Dry air aloft will largely contain the southern
push of thunderstorms. It will also help to put a cap on the
severe potential, although a few storms could be strong with an
isolated severe wind gusts. Colder air aloft could cause a few
storms to drop pea to dime sized hail across northern GA as well.

But as we go into the long term we`ll get another taste of fall!

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Key Messages:

- Mostly dry with isolated showers and storms generally confined to
the far southeastern portion of the forecast area.

- Cold front passage Sunday into Monday with relatively cooler
conditions through midweek.

Discussion:

Hooray for the cold front passages of False Fall!

Mid-/upper-level troughing will be the rule through the period with
any appreciable moisture largely shunted south of the CWA due to the
cold front passage. The result will likely be PoPs (only 20% at
most) confined to the far southeastern portion of the CWA. So, the
vast majority of the area will be dry through the period.

The drying effects of high pressure in the wake of the FROPA and the
moderating effect of northeasterly/easterly surface/low-level winds
will make for a pleasant, mild first half of next week. The FROPA on
Sunday will mean cooler daytime temps across northern and western
Georgia, with daytime temps still warm across central and eastern
Georgia (ahead of the front). For Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s area-wide, with temps some
5-10 degrees cooler in the mountains.

There is currently no concern for severe weather as shear and
instability parameters are lacking in the ensemble guidance. We are
still transitioning from the warm season, though, so cannot rule out
a strong storm or two each day across the far southeastern portion
of the CWA, where some moisture and convergence will remain in the
vicinity of the then-diffuse front.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds out of the SW
will be less than 10kts and are expected to go SE after 23Z. Some
low VFR cigs are possible with the development of an afternoon CU
field.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&
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