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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory continues for central and eastern Georgia
through 8 PM this evening.

- A Heat Advisory may be considered for parts of central Georgia
on Friday.

- Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
today and Friday.

Heat Today & Friday:

Though the heat wave has certainly faded from it`s peak, portions of
north and central Georgia will see heat indices near or above 105
degrees again today. These conditions are most likely in central and
eastern Georgia where temperatures in the 93 to 98 degree range
should compensate for boundary layer mixing and subsequent dewpoint
falls this afternoon. We opted not to expand the Heat Advisory into
the Atlanta Metro and northwest Georgia (but it was expanded into
Athens). Our forecast heat indices for this region show only spotty
values near 105 (downtown Atlanta and near Rome). There are also
concerns that cloud cover and more widespread afternoon convection
could hinder diurnal heating.

Our heat forecast on Friday is very similar to what we have going
today. The mix of surface dewpoints and afternoon high temperatures
should be most favorable for heat indices near 105 in central
Georgia. Afternoon storms could be a failure point for the heat,
especially north of Macon. Per coordination with neighboring offices
we are going to let the day shift make the call on a final Heat
Advisory for Friday. The odds of a Heat Advisory being issued for
areas of central Georgia east of Macon are about 75%. For locations
west of Macon the odds are closer to 45%.


Thunderstorm Chances Today & Friday:

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are anticipated in Georgia today
and Friday. For today storm coverage should be most widespread
across northern and western Georgia where a trough over the
Tennessee Valley should provide some extra lift. Convection may
start in northern Georgia as soon as 11 AM today, then it may linger
along the GA/AL border through around 1 AM tonight. Severe weather
is unlikely today, though a few storms may produce downburst wind
gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range and localized rain totals over 2
inches. The potential for these conditions is highest along and
north of Interstate 20.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday due to a
combination of diurnal heating, a passing trough axis and cold
front. Shear looks poor (less than 15 kt) ahead of the front, but
SBCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg
and PW values around 2 inches should support decent downdrafts and
cold pool development. This should combine with the ambient
conditions to produce several loosely organized storm clusters in
Georgia and South Carolina. Any of these clusters my produce wind
gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range. A couple of severe thunderstorm
warnings are possible, mainly between 2 PM and 10 PM.


Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

At a glance:

- The weekend could see more widespread thunderstorms with some
locally heavy rainfall totals along Saturday`s front.

- Cooler temperatures are expected next weekend, but unsettled
weather in the afternoon will likely continue.

Heat and humidity will start off the long term. A weak upper level
trough will be the source of convection though for the areas as the
weekend begins. Storms on Friday afternoon could become strong to
severe as they fire along a slowly moving cold front that`s expected
to drape across the south east.

By Saturday the front is expected to stall across middle Georgia. As
a result, PoPs there continues to be elevated during the afternoon
as daytime heating gets things going. Behind the front however, cold
air damming down the appalachians will provide a much needed break
from storms as well as keep a lid on afternoon thunderstorms. The
trick in the forecast is determining how far south the front stalls.

A drier pattern establishes itself for most of the CWA by the start
of next week, with cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 80s) and
less total storm coverage. Overnight lows in the mid 70s Saturday`s
front will fall back into the 60s at the start of next week
generally giving the entire CWA a break.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will remain an aviation hazard in north
Georgia through 11Z today. Storms may produce visibility or
ceiling impacts at the Atlanta area TAF sites and KAHN. Patchy
low ceilings (400-1200 ft AGL) or fog are possible between 10Z and
14Z today. Thunderstorm activity should return between 17Z today
and 04Z Friday. All of the regional TAF sites may be impacted at
some point during this period. Winds will primarily be from the
southwest (220-280 degrees) at 4 to 9 kt today.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in thunderstorms between 06Z and 08Z today.
Moderate confidence in a storm between 18Z and 03Z today, low
confidence on any finer storm timing.
High confidence in the wind outlook until 20Z, then moderate
confidence.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling and visibility forecasts.

Albright

&&
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