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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

- Heat index values between 98 and 104 remain possible through
Saturday with temperatures slowly rising through the weekend.

Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon.
Coverage continues to decrease each afternoon as high pressure over
the Gulf Coast develops. PWATs remain above 1.7" with the 00z
sounding showing 1.93", well into the 90th percentile. Expect any
thunderstorms that develops to be waterloaded with rainrates
potentially 2-3" per hour. Isolated flash flooding is not out of the
question. A few storms could become strong with frequent lightning
and gusty winds, though the greatest chance for this if further
north.

Temperatures ramp up quickly this weekend with highs today in the
mid to low 90s and highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 90s.
Dewpoints in the 70s will lead to prolonged heat index values of 100-
105 and brief values in excess of 105. A heat advisory is likely for
Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms coverage will be key to exactly
how hot things get, with greater coverage than expected leading to
slightly cooler conditions. Be prepared for the heat and have a
plan to stay cool if you plan to be in the sun for any extended
amount of time.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Key Messages:

-Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances across North and
Central Georgia expected through this next week.

-High temperatures in the 90s and widespread triple digit heat
indices are highly likely this next week.

A subtropical ridge will be set up over portions of the East Coast
and western Atlantic while high pressure settles over portions of
the Southeast this next week. With moisture sticking around
-- PWS on the order of 1.5" to 2+" -- this set up will favor
hot/humid conditions and daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
As has been the trend, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
remain possible each day with gusty to localized damaging winds,
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the threat for
widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak mid/upper-
level steering flow, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or
stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well.

Coverage of thunderstorms will start off more limited/isolated in
nature but become more widespread to numerous mid to late in the
week as high pressure shifts eastward and moisture continues to
surge northward into the region. An disturbances that pass around
the periphery of the high may also act to enhance rain and
thunderstorm chances.

The heat will also be something else to closely monitor especially
as high pressure continues to build overhead. Temperatures are
forecast to climb back up into the low to mid 90s (aside from the NE
mountains), perhaps upper 90s across portions of East-Central GA
next week. As a result, heat indices (or `feels like`
temperatures) are likely to rise above 100 and approach heat
advisory criteria (heat indices of 105 or greater) for many.
Please keep this in mind if you plan to spend anytime outdoors for
extended periods of time.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered storms are currently popping up over eastern GA and
should continue until sunset. Current cu field is ~4kft which
should lead to more coverage with storms as the afternoon goes on.
Clear skies into the overnight into morning hours before cu field
is expected to form again tomorrow. Chances for thunderstorms
tomorrow evening are lower than today so kept them out of the TAF
but still cannot rule out an isolated storm tomorrow evening.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on tsra tomorrow.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&
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